The ECB also forecasts a surge in inflation in the Eurozone, revising its estimates upwards: 2,2% in 2021, to then stabilize at 1,7% in 2022 and 1,5% in 2023. But above all the latest bulletin of the European Central Bank confirms the solid recovery of the euro area economy in the summer months, which will translate into an annual growth of the municipality's GDP in real terms equal to 5% in 2021, 4,6% in 2022 and 2,1% in 2023. The Delta variant has therefore not prevented the upward revision of the GDP estimates, which were initially assumed to grow by 2021% in 4,7 (substantially unchanged in 2022 and 2023). The euro area, according to the report, has been “proceeding towards strong growth in the third quarter and the most recent information points to a further improvement in euro area activity in the second half of 2021. In the medium term – it forecasts the ECB – a marked recovery of the economy is expected”.
However, the Delta variant and concerns about the pandemic in general are somewhat influencing forecasts in the short term and in particular for the month of September: observing the flash estimate, the Eurozone IHS Markit PMI Composite Index in September dropped significantly from 59.0 in August to 56.1 (5-month low), showing a further weakening of the rate of expansion compared to the 15-year peak recorded in July. Although it remained above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction for the seventh consecutive month, the index is well below analysts' estimate at 58,5 points. The ECB bulletin also provided an overview of the world economy, noting that overall the growth prospects of the world economy are slightly more favorable than in previous projections, primarily as regards 2022.
After an expected growth rate of 6,3% in 2021, world GDP in real terms (excluding the euro area) is projected to grow by 4,5% in 2022 and 3,7% in 2023. However, the recovery from the crisis on an international scale should remain uneven. “Advanced economies outside the euro area should return to their pre-pandemic trends in early 2022, above all driven by the United States”, say the Frankfurt experts.
