The news of the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, 90, who had already been replaced by his brother Salman, 79, rained on the financial markets committed to absorbing the novelty of the ECB's QE. This news has been awaited for some time, but which has in any case already had an immediate echo on oil prices: the WTI immediately rose by 94 cents to 47,95 dollars, awaiting a more robust rebound.An extra emotion after a historic day.
Here is, in summary, the situation after the "revolution" triggered by Mario Draghi's bazooka, starting with the immediate fall of the euro, traded this morning at 1,1361 against the dollar, at its lowest since 2003. Waiting for another thrilling appointment : Greek elections on Sunday.
ASIA AND WALL STREET GO UP
All the Stock Exchanges are up, including Asia. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by one percentage point, as did the lists of Australia and South Korea. Indonesia, meanwhile, scored a new all-time high.
The exception is China, held back by the contraction of the manufacturing index, down for the second in a row and by new signs of inflation.
Wall Street also participated in the ECB party: the Dow Jones index appreciated by 1,48%, the S&P 500 by around 1,5% and the Nasdaq by 1,78%.
EUROPE RECORD. AND LI KA SHNG MAKES A BIG HIT IN LONDON
The European markets obviously took center stage: Paris +1,5%, Frankfurt +1,3%, Madrid +1,6% rose.
London +1,02% is preparing to experience another field day today: Hutchison Whampoa, the colossus led by Li-Ka-Shing which holds control of "3" in Italy has purchased the majority of 02 from Telefonica, the second English mobile operator, thus becoming the market leader across the Channel. Transaction price: £10,2 billion.
MILAN QUEEN. AND THE SPREAD DROP TO 109
Milan did best of all, the stock exchange most sensitive to the performance of bank stocks: the FtseMib index marks a rise of 2,4%, sixth consecutive positive session.
The rally in eurozone government bonds was even more robust, with BTPs in the lead.
The yield of the 10-year BTP fell to 1,54% from yesterday's 1,69%, the spread with the German Bund narrowed to 109 (-6 basis points).
THE USA APPLAUSE SUPER MARIO, BUT THEY ASK THEMSELVES: WILL IT ENOUGH?
“It is the last, but also the best hope in the hands of Europe to get out of the crisis. But it may be too little or too late." Thus attacks the comment of New York on the "bomb" launched by Mario Draghi. "It will undoubtedly serve to weaken the euro and keep interest rates low - summarizes Mohammed El.Erian, chief economist of Allianz - but it may not be enough to restart growth and entails some collateral risks".
In any case, Mario Draghi's ECB has certainly not disappointed expectations. Frankfurt has launched a bond purchase program worth 60 billion euros a month, a plan to be continued at least until September 2016. Overall, the monetary policy intervention is around 1.100 billion euros. The purchases of bonds, both government and corporate, will continue in any case until the inflation outlook is readjusted, which the ECB would like to be close to just below 2%. The purchases will concern bonds with maturities between two years and thirty years, they should also concern securities with negative yields.
The criterion for allocating the intervention is based on the ECB's shareholding structure. Italy has a 17% share of the central institute.
A LONG THURSDAY FOR BANKS AND INSURANCE
In Piazza Affari, the increases were spread across all sectors. But it was bank stocks that excelled, the ones most affected by the turnaround. Mario Draghi stressed that Qe aims to rebalance banking portfolios, replacing BTPs and Bunds taken over by central banks with new liquidity. In this regard, Federico Ghizzoni CEO of Unicredit said: “Most of the government bonds are also necessary for the bank's liquidity position. We will evaluate each time what to do with the portfolio”
Unicredit rose by 3,7%, Understanding + 2,1%Mount Paschi + 3,3%.
Among the popular ones, Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna + 4,7% Banca Popolare di Milano + 3% Where's Banca + 1,9% Pop. Etruria +13%. Thus the effect of the Renzi decree on the sector continues. Meanwhile, yesterday, the bankers affected by the measure met in Milan to study counter-moves.
Great reactions also in the insurance sector.
She shined Catholic +8,6% to 6,40 euros, a new high since the beginning of November.
Generali +1,7% rose above the 18 euro threshold for the first time since April 2010. Also progressing UnipolSai+ 3,2%.
GOOD ENI AND ENEL. SAIPEM FROM RECORD
After the death of King Abdullah, a hot day is expected for energy stocks, which are already recovering. The utilities sector is no less lively, relaunched by the robust drop in the cost of money.
Among the Treasury Bigs Eni earned 2,2%. Enel instead, it rose by 3,3%, supported by the promotion of Rbc a Outperform da Sector Perform.
But the star of the day was Saipem +4,3%, after a maximum increase of 7,7%.
The stock (+6,6% on Wednesday) rebounds after the black 2014, in which it lost 43%, and the drop in the first weeks of January in which it reached the minimum of the last 7,19 years at 11 euros (May 2004). Among the possible explanations for the turning point: 1) the possible maxi compensation from Gazprom for the cancellation of South Stream (up to 1,5 billion, according to rumors); 2) the possible involvement in the construction of the Turkish Stream, the alternative gas pipeline agreed between Ankara and Moscow; 3) the rebound from the lows in the energy sector.
For Websim, the quotation remains high: Saipem is traded on the Stock Exchange at a 2015 P/E of 14 times, much higher than that of the French Technipo (8,3). The industry average is 10.
FROM STM TO FCA ONLY ONE CHOIR: THANK YOU DOLLAR
The fall of the euro, in addition to the prospect of an economic recovery, is the propellant of the companies most exposed to the dollar area.
StM gained 2,2%, Fiat Chrysler rose by 3,1%.
The race also continues Mediaset + 2,4%. L'Espresso jumped 6,80% to €1,037 after selling ownership of All Music to Discovery Italia for €17 million
The maneuvers take on consistency Telecom Italy +1% in view of the Telco liquidation. Il Sole24Ore writes that the government intends to intervene on various levels to prevent the company, as a result of the exit of the former Telco shareholders, from finding itself without a nucleus of stable shareholders: the pivot of this systemic operation would be the Cassa Depositi and loans.
Going against the trend: Salvatore Ferragamo -0,9%.Société Générale lowered the stock to Sell from the previous Hold. The target price remains unchanged, 20 euros.
The transalpine bank's report underlines that at current prices, the stock incorporates the growth expectations of 2015 and 2016: the multiples at which it trades are higher than the average for the sector and are not justified.
Tod’s -1,64%. Same discount for Safilo.
