The escalation between Iran e Israel, aggravated by the growing tensions with the United States, brings attention back to the Strait of Hormuz, One of the sea passages most strategic in the world. This corridor between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, crucial for the transit of Petroleum e natural gas destined for Europe, Asia and North America, is today at the centre of a very high-risk scenario. The possibility that Tehran decides to lock is no longer just theoretical. But what would be the consequences?
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have immediate effects, far beyond regional borders. prices oil and gas prices would immediately spike and, in turn, inflation, bills, transportation costs, industrial activities e financial markets would be deeply affected. TheEurope, and in particular theItaly, would be directly affected, given its heavy dependence on energy imports. The interruption would aggravate the price increases and the difficulties of European refineries already affected by the post-Ukraine energy crisis.
A scenario that echoes the oil crises of the 70s, with potentially recessionary consequences.
Strait of Hormuz: What is it and why is it so important?
The Strait of Hormuz is a strip of sea approximately 54 km wide at its widest point and only 21 km at its narrowest point, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and then to the Indian Ocean. This is the only maritime exit for the major oil exporters in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain.
According to data from the EIA (US Energy Information Administration):
- About 20% of the world's oil passes through here every day, equal to over 17 million barrels.
- It also crosses about one fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) produced in the world, mainly by Qatar.
- Over 3.000 merchant ships they pass through monthly.
A shutdown – even a temporary one – would put a huge chunk of the global energy supply at risk.
Strait of Hormuz: What Happens If They Close It? The Effects
If Iran were to really close the Strait, even just by threatening it with mines or naval operations, the effects they would be immediate:
Oil prices soar
Even in the absence of a concrete blockade, the risk alone has already pushed the price of Brent above $79 a barrel (+18% in two weeks); currently it stands at around $77,35 (+0,44%). In the event of a total interruption, according to analysts, prices could to go upquickly between the 100 and 130 dollars, with peaks of up to $150 in the event of a prolonged conflict.
Gas price increase
Il qatari lng, mainly intended for Europe and Asia, would be strongly limited. The effects would be similar to those of the 2022 gas crisis after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with skyrocketing prices and new tensions on the markets. In Amsterdam, the price of gas has already risen by 2% to close to 42 euros per megawatt hour.
Inflation soars and utility bills soar
According to Unimpresa, three months of tension in the Persian Gulf would be enough to increase inflation in Italy by 0,8 percentage points, with:
- Electricity bills and gas growing by 30-40%
- Fuels over 2,2 euros/litre
- Rising prices for transport, consumer goods e food
Families would see their purchasing power significantly worsen, while for energy-intensive businesses (ceramics, metallurgy, mechanics, food) monthly operating costs could increase by up to 6.000 euros for energy alone.
Slowing economic growth
In an already fragile context due to trade wars and international tensions, a blockade in Hormuz would entail Logistics disruptions e delays in supply chainsThe risk is that of to brake the fragile one post-pandemic economic recovery, aggravating tensions on public budgets and private consumption.
Strait of Hormuz: Why Markets Are Holding Up (For Now)
Despite the tensions, energy markets are not yet in panic. Why? There is an excess of supply.
According to the International Energy Agency, global oil production is growing faster than demand. If this pace continues, there could be a surplus of 8 million barrels per day by the end of the decade. This “buffer” limits instability.
But in case of prolonged closure, the stocksstrategic not would be enough to contain the shock wave, and prices would start to rise sharply again.
Geopolitical and Military Impact: Who Decides on the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait but has never acted, aware of the economic and political risks, also because a blockade would damage exports to allies such as China e Russia, Tehran's main partners. However, in such an unstable climate, the possibility of its closure cannot be ruled out.
Following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites and Tehran's threats to close the Strait, the regime is considering various options, from a total blockade to the creation of an “unsafe” passage, as demonstrated by the oil tanker accident in the Gulf of Oman on June 15. The final decision is up to the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, under the Guide Supreme Ali Khamenei.
The United States and Europe have reiterated the importance of freedom of navigation in the Strait. Washington maintains a constant naval presence, supported by European missions such as Emasoh and Aspides, ready to intervene in the event of a blockade. An open conflict would risk involving regional actors such as Hezbollah, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, leading to a dangerous escalation for global stability.
