“rates may fall in 2024. But not now”. It fell to Francois Villeroy de Galhau the French leader of the ECB doves extinguish the effect of the words of Isabel Schnabel, the spokeswoman for the hawks who, surprisingly, announced on Wednesday that the bull season was over, thus triggering bond purchases. The banker's prudence together with the wait for today's US employment data had the effect of slowing down the TRO's run during the night. But there is no shortage of new signs of a decline in rates. The prices of Petroleum I'm in free fall. -13% for Brent at 74,6 dollars a barrel, a figure which, as Reuter points out, "represents good news for inflation, the future of bonds and for the prospects of rate cuts next year". But here we enter the minefield of geopolitics: the decline coincided with Putin's arrival in Ryad for a summit with Mbs. Making predictions is really risky.
Opening down in Europe, Milan barely moved
Caution, after yesterday's records, is truly de rigueur. European stock markets open lower. TO Business Square the banks are weak, except Finecobank and Unicredit.
IERI (Yesterday) the clue Ftse Eb di Milano it gained 0,8% to 30.0326 points, a new long-term high (2008).
The signals arriving from the markets of the Old Continent point in the direction of new records.
Markets at the top. Frankfurt and Madrid fly
Il Dax German (+0,7%) reached its seventh consecutive increase and new absolute tops at 16.656 points. The breaking of the previous record high of 16.500 points could open up space to extend up to 17 thousand points, provided that it is confirmed at least at the end of the week.
New tops from 2018 for theIbex Spanish, +24,7% in 2023, second best result in the Eurozone.
The Eurostoxx 50 (+0,7%, 4.483) achieved its fifth rise in six sessions, reaching the top since July.
According to chartists, the new highs in Milan can pave the way for new increases: if confirmed at the end of the week, the break in the 30 area will pave the way for short-term increases to at least 34 points. In 2023 it is the best market in Europe with a +28%, net of detached dividends.
While the US bond market tries to stabilize, the European market continues to set records. Yield XNUMX-year US Treasury to 4,16% from 4,19% yesterday. German 2,20-year Bund at 2,25% from 3,92%, lowest since May. Ten-year BTP at 3,98% from XNUMX%, lowest since February. spread stable at 173.
Even the Latvian banker Maerin Kazaks try to snuff out the bond rally. There is no need to rush to reduce the cost of borrowing in the first part of next year. Kazaks added that if the outlook changes and the balance of risks to price stability shifts, “our rate decisions could change.”
Jobs data slows down Wall Street
Future dishes a Wall Street after the third modest consecutive decline: it induces it S & P500(-0,4%, 4.550 points), confirms the start of a more than legitimate consolidation phase, after the +9% of November, under the strong resistance at 4.600 points.
Yesterday's data highlighted a "cooling" of the labor market. New jobs in the private sector reached 103.000 in November, compared to 106.000 in the previous period (revised data). The consensus expected 130.000. The positive change in November is the second lowest of 2023. For the first time since the beginning of 2021, the entertainment and hospitality sectors recorded a negative change.
Nvidia -2%%. CEO Jensen Huang said at an event last night that the company works closely with the US government in creating products that comply with export regulations to China. The statements should reduce fears of a limitation on sales of high-performance chips to Chinese customers.
China on parity, Nikkei down
China stocks are around parity in a session of widespread declines in Asia Pacific. The CSI300 of the lists of Shanghai e Shenzen it is unchanged.
China recorded a trade surplus of 68,39 billion dollars in November, up from 66,49 billion in the same month of 2022 and well above the 58 billion estimated on the eve by analysts. The data, released by Chinese Customs, benefit from exports surprisingly returning to positive, for the first time in 7 months, thanks to the fractional growth of 0,5%, against expectations at -1,1%, while imports drop by 0,6% compared to forecasts of +3,3%.
Elsewhere, the index Hang Seng of Hong Kong loses 0,8%. Tokyo stock market down: Nikkei -1,7%. Stock markets are weak South Korea and India.
Oil "stunned" by five declines in a row
Petroleum “stunned” by five consecutive heavy drops, yesterday -4%, which crushed the price to new five-month lows. US gasoline inventories rose by 5,4 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations for a 1 million barrel increase. Oil prices have fallen about -10% since theOPEC+ announced voluntary cuts overall production of 2,2 million barrels per day. The markets seem to completely ignore the producers' cartel's maneuvers aimed at keeping oil prices high. Reuters found that OPEC oil production fell in November, recording the first monthly decline since July, due to lower shipments by Nigeria and Iraq, as well as continued market-supporting cuts by Saudi Arabia and of other OPEC+ members.
The Bloomberg Index (97,60 USD) lost -2%, its fifth consecutive decline, sliding to new five-month lows in tune with the trend of crude oil. The gas Ue (Amsterdam) yesterday rebounded by +3% ending at 39,30 euros/mwh, the reaction started from the minimum of the last two years.
Stellantis negotiates investments, Bper restructures
stellantis. Italy has six billion euros of funds still available to invest to support the automotive industry. The unions remember this after the start of the table for the development of the Italian automotive sector with the Minister of Business and Made in Italy, Adolfo Urso, and representatives of the car manufacturer.
Tim. Barclays slightly limits the target price to 0,33 euros.
Unicredit announced the early closure of the offer period relating to the 75 million euro senior notes, 6,30% interest, maturing on 14 November 2036 issued by the bank. The last day of the offer is December 7th.
Bper. Corriere della Sera gives an account of the voluntary staff reduction plans carried out by the management. Bper's objective is to help around a thousand people voluntarily leave and in exchange collect the hiring of 500 young people, approaching the goal of 1.450 new entries as announced in the Bper e-volution plan presented in June 2022. At the end of 2025, however the exits will have to reach 3.300, thus bringing the overall perimeter to 19.400 employees. The signing of the agreement would bring the generational change project in the institute led by Piero Luigi Montani to the halfway point. In fact, 2022 employees had already left in 1.100 and another 540 last March, compared to 800 applications submitted
Mps Bank. As of 27 November, Barclays holds 5,653% of the MPS capital in indirect ownership, according to the latest Consob findings.
