Mariano Rajoy smiles satisfied. Spain has officially left the crisis behind and can claim to be the first country in Southern Europe to hope for a solid recovery. In fact, an average GDP growth of at least 1,5% is expected over the next two years, although the public finances still leave something to be desired (the public deficit is around 7% a year and the debt is over 90% of GDP) and the unemployment rate is well above 20%.
Fire in the pan then? The analysis is complex. Obviously Spain is still in recovery. The wounds produced by the crisis are still visible: thousands of small businesses still have their shutters down, as do many shops, while in big cities and tourist centers the "for sale" and "for rent" signs abound. As if to say that the harsh reality of every day collides with the macroeconomic statistics which indicate a positive turnaround in the economic trend in all sectors, except in energy consumption which has decreased.
As if to say that the wave of improvement has not yet invaded the territory and people continue to suffer. But with another spirit compared to the past months. In fact, hope has resurfaced and with it the desire to roll up one's sleeves and start again. These are small outbreaks scattered here and there, but significant of the will of the Spaniards to ignite the recovery.
Spain has therefore given itself the tools to feed the flywheel of the economy and to put a stop to the past. Certainly thanks to the centre-right government (after two leftists) led by Mariano Rajoy, who was able, with the intelligent help of the Minister of Economy, to get the country back on track with a couple of adjustments that were essential.
The first, by far the most awaited, the one that has made the labor market more flexible, less onerous and therefore more competitive. Even if the detractors say that the increase in productivity is mainly given by the many layoffs decided in recent years. The second, the one which (thanks also to the substantial help from Europe) has made it possible to restore the country's banking sector and therefore to favor the reopening of the credit tap to businesses, but also to consumers.
The fact is that analyzing the latest quarterly data, we realize that consumption has grown, that investments (including those from abroad) have increased, that the increase in unemployment (a constant in recent years) has come to a halt. It is no coincidence that Spain has managed to convince a group like Renault to stay in the country, to increase the flow of exports demonstrating that the competitiveness of Spanish products is a concrete fact, to return with its public securities to the markets without any problems. The spread is at Italian levels, while the rating agencies are convinced that Spain has a great future ahead of it.
But there are also other signs that should not be underestimated. The real estate market has begun to move positively again, tourism is growing year after year (also favored by the instability of neighboring African countries) and with it the flow of motorways, while household savings give some timid signs of vitality.
To all this must be added a political stability that should be taken as an example in Italy, with a prime minister in the saddle more than ever, supported both by the ruling house and by the population. It is no coincidence that street demonstrations and protests are, when there are, very moderate, demonstrating the broad consensus enjoyed by the government majority. As for the secessionist desires of Catalonia, for now the ambitions of the autonomists are contained, even if there could be some negative backlash in the coming months. Especially if the movement were to become radicalized as it happened in the Basque Country at the time (but that's yet another story).
