From today SpaceX will officially enter the Nasdaq 100 index of Wall Street and, after the period of silence, the news will start to arrive first estimates from Wall StreetMajor international brokerage firms are beginning to follow Elon Musk's rocket and artificial intelligence company, showing a clear consensus: buy.
At least six brokers, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group and Ubs Group, they started the coverage of the title with ratings equivalent to “buy“, focusing on the long-term growth of Space Exploration Technologies, despite lingering doubts about its profitability, on his ability to execution and on his review After a highly successful stock market debut, the gamble is to see if SpaceX is more than just a lunar venture and whether it can also profit from artificial intelligence. period of silence This week ended for bank analysts who subscribed to the$86 billion initial public offering of dollars, led by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co., with the participation of 18 other banks.
Nasdaq to list faster, S&P 500 entry still one year away
The Nasdaq listing came just 15 days after SpaceX's stock market debut on June 12, a significant inclusion. among the fastest ever, thanks to Nasdaq's new rules for newly listed companies. S&P Global, however, has refused to create a similar expedited process for the benchmark S&P 500 index, and it will take at least a year for SpaceX to join the world's most followed index. Last month FTSE Russell has added the stock to its U.S. indices, with funds like the iShares Russell 1000 ETF already offering investors a piece of the largest IPO in U.S. history. SpaceX shares have gained more than 6% since their debut, in a brief run marked by post-IPO volatility.
Even though SpaceX's market capitalization is around $2.100 trillion, the company will receive a weighting in the index of approximately 1%The Nasdaq-100 is weighted by free float market capitalization, meaning that only shares available for public trading are included in the calculation, not those held by controlling shareholders. With less than 5% of SpaceX's outstanding shares publicly available after the IPO, the company's weight in the index will remain relatively modest at this stage.
The arrival of the passive investment cavalry
The debut in the tech-heavy index is set to create a further source of demand, as index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied to the Nasdaq 100 will need to purchase shares to align their portfolios with the new benchmark composition. Active managers who closely track the index may also adjust their positions. Many retail investors prefer to invest in funds to diversify their portfolios. Over $587 billion is managed in funds that track the Nasdaq 100 index, including the QQQ and QQQM. Invesco which will now have to make room for SpaceX. Last month JP Morgan estimated that SpaceX's entry into the index could attract $4,3 billion in passive capital inflows.
SpaceX shares were listed on the stock exchange at $135 on June 11, opened trading at $150 the next day and immediately took off. On June 16, SpaceX closed at $201,80 with a market capitalization of $2.6 trillion, becoming the sixth-largest company in the world. Then, the trend reversed. Yesterday, the stock closed at $160.42 with a market capitalization of around $2.1 trillion, down 22% from its high and not far from its opening price after the IPO. target price analysts' expectations for the next 12 months range from $165 to $365.
Betting on valuation and long-term timing
SpaceX investors have so far navigated by sight for the record-breaking IPO, with few financial projections that could help them determine the stock's true value. The problem in calculating SpaceX's value lies in the difference between its current results and forecasts for a future not so close.
“Everyone is talking about what this company could become in 2030, not what it might become in the next 12 months,” he told Bloomberg Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth, said: "This is an investment that looks to a brighter future, but still with a four-year perspective." "Much of the company's future value is tied to revenue streams that are still, to some extent, distant," added Robert Gruendyke, senior portfolio manager of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments. "This will lead to a much higher stock volatility compared to most of the more established and mature companies.”
The company is expected to post revenue of approximately $36 billion in 2019. 2026, according to some preliminary estimates by analysts at companies that did not participate in the IPO. And it is not yet profitable. The research team of Goldman Sachs predicts the company's total revenue will reach $474 billion in 2030Evercore ISI analysts expect sales to exceed $1.000 trillion by 2031. According to an article in the Wall Street JournalMorgan Stanley analysts said revenue could reach $3.400 trillion in 2040Times that according to some investors are too long.
According to data collected by BloombergSpaceX's price-to-sales ratio is 41 times its expected revenue for the next 12 months. To understand the significance of this extreme value, consider that the most expensive stock in the S&P 500 index, based on this metric, is Palantir Technologies, which trades at 32 times revenue. Apple e ecosystem Instead, they are both priced less than nine times their estimated sales.
Wall Street brokerage firms will now attempt to value SpaceX as a publicly traded company for the first time, applying traditional valuation metrics. Both Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the stock today with their top ratings, with Morgan Stanley which defined the company as “the latest frontier of artificial intelligence“We believe the company is well-positioned to fully leverage its distinctive advantages in the areas of space, connectivity and artificial intelligence,” analysts said. Goldman Sachs, betting that each market has the potential to become a trillion-dollar opportunity over a five-year time horizon. Brokerage firms also RBC, Bernstein and Stifel They started coverage with their highest ratings, betting on the success of Starship, SpaceX's next-generation rocket designed to be fully reusable. "Starship is the flywheel that fuels SpaceX's ambitions," RBC analysts said. Last month, Oppenheimer was the first to initiate coverage with an “outperform” rating.
The other side of SpaceX: Artificial Intelligence
But investors are not stopping at considering SpaceX just as a rocket ship, but are betting that it could soon evolve into a AI infrastructure provider on a large scale, using the generated liquidity to finance the development of Grok, competing with the Gpt models of OpenAI and Claude of anthropic. Some also believe that Starlink has significant potential for expansion into the space sector satellite communications, while much of the company's long-term ambitions depend on the successful development of its Starship rocket.
However, not everyone is optimistic on SpaceX. Analysts at Morningstar They valued the company at around $780 billion, citing uncertainty surrounding its artificial intelligence business, which includes xAI and the social media platform X.
