A real political earthquake that makes the formation of a new government very complicated: this is the clamorous result of the elections of 4 March which records – according to the update of the count at 10, with 30 sections scrutinized out of 56.566 – a boom beyond forecasts Five Star Movement (32,1%), the collapse of the Pd (18,9%), and overtaking the League (17,8%) su Forza Italy (13,9%).
No one has reached the 40% threshold and therefore there is no certain majority: the closest to the finish line is the center-right coalition with Northern League traction, but it is not certain that it will be the one that will come true.
Disappointing result Free and Equal (3,4%) as well as of + Europe, which stops at 2,6 %, thus remaining outside Parliament. Not even Civica Popolare and Insieme on the center-left side, nor Noi con l'Italia on the center-right, pass the threshold.
But beyond the percentages, it is the distribution of seats that really counts, considering that the majority in the Senate is 158. At present, no one reaches it, but the closest is the center-right coalition which would collect 132 seats against 112 of the Five Stars and the 50 of the centre-left.
The problem – which will come to light with the election of the presidents of the two chambers – will therefore be finding a majority and both the centre-right and the 5 Star Movement will have to find allies. In terms of numbers, the center-right is in theory closer to the finish line than the M5S and, paradoxically, the Democratic Party could tip the balance, even if after the collapse, Renzi's party seems determined to take the path of the opposition and not to vote neither for the Northern League-based center-right nor for the Five Stars. Today it will also be understood whether Renzi will really remain at the helm of the Democratic Party or throw in the towel.
However, in the background remains – and this is the most pressing political problem – the decomposition of the poles and advances the hypothesis of an axis between Cinque Stelle and Lega to create a government with a clear populist imprint. After all, the programs of the Five Stars and the League are in many respects very close and for months there have been signs of possible convergence between the two groups. The numbers go in this direction. In fact, combining the 112 senators of the Five Stars with Salvini's 63 would reach over 158 and the majority would certainly be in Palazzo Madama. And so in the Chamber, where the Five Stars could count on 215 seats and the League on 123 and joining together they would exceed the threshold of the absolute majority, which in Montecitorio is 316 seats, even if in terms of coalitions the center-right is ahead with 245 seats compared to the 135 of the center-left and, precisely, to the 215 of M5S.
The next few hours will allow for a better understanding of developments in the political situation, which worries both Europe and the markets, but the signal coming out of the polls is clear: Di Maio and Salvini are the two big winners, Renzi and Berlusconi the big losers.
