Christmas is approaching, but, judging by the news, it doesn't seem like it. The massacre of Berlin, together withassassination attempt on the Russian ambassador in Türkiye, bring back terrorism, already overshadowed by the Trump effect. The race for the most solid assets has started again, with new increases in the dollar and T-Bonds. But the news arriving in the German capital also reduced the earnings of the US stock market. The news also fell a few hours before the last important monetary policy appointment of the year: the press conference by Haruhiko Kuroda, at the end of the BoJ meeting on rates.
Even on the chessboard of Piazza Affari it is not time to celebrate. The already impossible mission of Monte Paschi's capital increase was further complicated yesterday by an incredible last-minute tug of war between the institute and Quaestio, the operational arm of the Atlante fund, over the securitization of NPLs. The knot unraveled in the evening when the attention of the City of Milan had shifted to yet another blitz by Vivendi on Mediaset: peace on this front, at Christmas or after, now seems impossible.
JAPAN CONFIRMS NEGATIVE RATES: THE STOCK IS GOOD
The geopolitical clouds are destined to condition the opening of the Stock Exchanges. Meanwhile, the policy of the Bank of Japan has not changed: the negative rates (-0,1%) and the purchases of securities and ETFs to support the market are confirmed. But the final release reveals a note of cautious optimism on the inflation front, supported by the decline in the yen (this morning 117,48, -11,6% against the dollar since Trump's election), by the rebound in oil prices and by growth, thanks to the recovery of exports.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange reacted to the BoJ's decisions with a rise of 0,5%, reversing the initial trend. China's stock markets are down: Hong Kong -0,7%, Shanghai -0,6%. Seoul +0,2% and Mumbai -0,2%.
YELLEN PROMOTES THE RECOVERY, APPLE ATTACKS THE EU
The US markets closed higher, but the strength of the bull was significantly reduced after the massacre in Germany. The Dow Jones index (+0,20% to 19,883 points) has once again postponed the assault to 20. The S&P 500 also advanced 0,20%. Better the Nasdaq (+0,37%). The dollar continues its march towards parity with the euro: the cross is trading at 1,039, from 1,045 on Friday evening. We are back on the highs of the last 14 years. Supporting the rally was yesterday's very positive analysis of the state of the economy by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.
Meanwhile, the college of major US electors has given the green light to the nomination of Donald Trump. The new president has appointed Mick Mulvaney, a lawmaker close to the Tea Party, known for being against deficit expansions and therefore unfunded fiscal measures, as head of the Office of Management and Budget. This should lead to prudence about the effective extent of the spending plan.
Leading the rise was the platoon of the most prestigious tech stocks: Microsoft +2,12%, Intel +1,60%, Amazon +1,09%. Apple also did very well (+0,58%): Apple announced yesterday that it wants to sue the EU Commission for damages for the maxi fine (14 billion dollars) imposed for the tax agreement with Ireland.
STAR WARS THE FORCE IS WITH WALT DISNEY
The Walt Disney fashion show (+1,34%) took place on the red carpet of Wall Street yesterday in the wake of the triumphal debut of Rogue One, the new saga linked to the Star Wars universe, over the weekend: the film achieved revenues for $290,5 million, the second highest-grossing film ever for the franchise. In 2012, Walt Disney bought the rights to Star Wars from Lucasfilm for $4 billion. Oil was down this morning: Brent at 54,82 dollars (-0,2%), Wti at 51,91 (-0,4%).
MEDIOBANCA SECURITIES HOLDS BACK SAIPEM
In Milan, a leap forward for Saipem (+4,6%). But the stock may slow down this morning after Mediobanca Securities revised its previous Buy's recommendation down from Neutral. Analyst Alessandro Pozzi brought the target price to 53 euro cents from 47 euro cents. Tenaris +0,43%. Down Eni (-0,5%).
MILAN WEAK, VOLVO AGAIN READY FOR THE STOCK EXCHANGE
The massacre in Berlin (12 dead) represents a heavy mortgage on the mood of the European markets, already weakened yesterday by the downturn in the banking sector. Both the Turkish lira and the ruble, after an initial decline, recovered their pre-terrorist prices.
The sentence "for negligence" inflicted by a French court on Christine Lagarde for her behavior in the Tapie affair will not entail limitations on the personal freedom of the managing director of the Monetary Fund.
Milan, after last week's rally (+3,9%) closed down by 0,24%, at 18.969. On the other European markets, Madrid lost 0,59%, Paris 0,25%, while Frankfurt advanced by 0,11% and London by 0,02%.
Volvo, the Swedish carmaker controlled by the Chinese Geely, has successfully closed the offer of 5 billion crowns in convertible bonds, the first step towards a return to listing on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
The Btp/Bund spread fluctuated between 152 and 159 basis points, on the same level as last Friday's closing. The yield differential between Italy and Spain traded at 48bp at the close (against 51bp at the opening).
The German government will make less use of the capital market during 2017, as announced by the Finance Ministry. Berlin should raise 172 billion euros on the capital market through classic instruments such as Bunds and Bubils and an additional amount between 6 and 10 billion through "inflation-linked" securities. In 2016, Germany issued bonds worth 202,5 billion.
THE TREASURY LAUNCHES THE DECREE FOR BANKS. MPS -11%
Difficult day for credit. The index of Italian banks loses 2%, the European one 1,7%. Bitter debut for the capital increase of Monte Paschi: -11% after several suspensions due to excessive reductions. The stock, against a request for 5 billion in capital, is worth just over 600 million on the stock exchange. The Bank issued a note underlining the doubts of Quaestio, the asset management company that manages the Atlante fund, among other things, regarding the sale of non-performing loans.
The increase will end between 21 and 22 December (Wednesday for the retail public, Thursday for institutional investors) at a price of the new shares to be issued between 1 euro and 24,9 euro. But, barring surprises, the attempt to resolve the crisis with a market operation seems doomed to failure. The government has already run for cover: the Council of Ministers met in the evening, and at the end the premier Paolo Gentiloni, with the minister of the Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, explained that "the report to the parliament authorizing the government to resort” ad a higher debt of 20 billion. The intervention to support the banking system will result in an increase in public debt, seen at 132,8% of GDP in 2016 according to the latest government estimates.
In addition to Mps, the public parachute could be extended to Popolare Vicenza, Veneto Banca, Carige and also to the four bridge banks born from the resolution of Banca Marche, Banca Etruria, CariChieti and CariFerrara. In view of the operation, Banca Carige achieved an increase of over 7%. Mediobanca is also on positive ground (+0,7%).
BRAKING UNICREDIT
Unicredit, on the other hand, loses 4,5% in view of the 13 billion increase proposed in the business plan. Moody's confirmed Baa1 ratings on the institution's senior long-term debt and deposits, with a stable outlook.
Banca Pop.Emilia (-3,8%), Banco Popolare (-2,7%) and Ubi (-1,8%) also fell sharply.
MEDIASET, VIVENDI AIMS AT THE THRESHOLD OF THE TAKEOVER
It is now war without borders between Mediaset (+1,5%) and Vivendi. While Fininvest announced that it had presented a complaint to Consob and Borsa Italiana for market manipulation and abuse of privileged information, from Paris Vivendi responded with the decision to increase its investment in Mediaset within the limits of 30% of the capital, close to the takeover bid threshold. During the week, the executives of the French company will have to respond to the Consob summons.
Meanwhile, Mediaset's board of directors will be held today. In addition to discussing the information related to the challenge with the Bolloré group, the board should also examine the return under Rti of sports journalists and other workers (a total of just over a hundred people) already merged into Premium pay TV, from which they would fall also the television rights relating to the 2017-2018 season of the Champions League, the last of the three-year exclusive period conquered by the Alfa Romeo. Telecom Italia still in fibrillation (+2,4%).
HOLD UTILITIES, ATLANTIA LEAP
In the rest of the list, good rise by Enel (+0,8%), accompanied by the other utilities: Terna +1,6%, Snam +1,1%, Atlantia +1,7%. Among industrialists, Fiat Chrysler +0,5% and StM +1,1%. Positive Buzzi (+1,3%). Campari advances (+1,6%).
