Every month Sace issues a new country risk update, an update of the country risk. It is a fine-tuning of the news in all the countries of the world that can influence the level of sovereign risk of each nation, and therefore influence commercial traffic with foreign countries.
In this month's issue (see the complete newsletter in the link to the Sace website) the most important news concerns:
United Arab Emirates. Data released by the Dubai government show signs of stabilization and in some cases of recovery of the market real estate market in the first half of 2012. Prestige properties and the commercial spaces in which they converge are above all recovering capital from Pakistan and Iran seeking refuge from the devaluation of the rupee and international sanctions, respectively. The capital market also registers a 15% growth in the last 32 months in the value of the shares of listed real estate companies. The prospects of real estate market they are encouraging and favored by political stability and by the exchange rate pegged to the dollar, which shelters the sector from the eurozone crisis.
Morocco. The IMF approved a USD 6,2 billion two-year program. The deal has character precautionary and will provide the Rabat government with liquidity support in case of worsening economic conditions; moreover, the IMF program should reassure foreign investors and allow the country to access the capital markets on favorable terms. Morocco, despite having adopted prudent fiscal policies in recent years and recorded positive growth, even during the Arab Spring, is exposed to the slowdown of the European economies and the volatility of the prices of commodity energy, of which it is an importer.
Russia. Russia, the only G20 country still outside the organization, has formally joined World Trade Organization. THE'membership of the WTO will mainly determine theabolition of import duties of many commodities (especially capital goods) and an easier access of foreign investors in some sectors(e.g. banking and aeronautics). However, the scarce presence of private operators in strategic sectors and the difficult operating context (high bureaucratisation and corruption) are a brake on the interests of player foreigners to the Russian economy.
Vietnam. The arrests of CEO Ly Xuan Hai and founder Nguyen Duc Kien of theAsia Commercial Bank, the main private bank in the country and also participated by Standard Chartered, caused nervousness in the financial markets. Bank runs by account holders forced the Central Bank to inject USD 1 billion of new liquidity into the Vietnamese banking system. Although the crimes the two businessmen are accused of are not officially connected to the bank's business, the trust in the indebted banking system on the part of the markets and investors, it has suffered a strong jolt that threatens to have repercussions on economic activity.
