Awaiting the Fed's verdict due tonight, markets are finding relief thanks to the drop in oil, hovering around $100 a barrel, far below the peak of 139 a week ago and the doomsday forecasts of the gurus who believed discounted up to $200. But, these days, it's easier to win a six in the lottery than to move in a market with extreme reactions, dominated by a geopolitical framework characterized by maximum uncertainty, including the effects of a probable default by Russia. Today, in the wake of the drop in crude oil, optimism prevails on the evolution of the Ukrainian drama, but moods are destined to change several times during the session.
Hong Kong advances by 7%, Shanghai +3,9%
Even China is hit by volatility. After days of heavy losses, the markets reacted, starting with Hong Kong, reference point for tech price lists: the Hang Seng index. Which had lost 12% in the last three sessions, rebounds from the lows of the last ten years touched yesterday, +7%. The tech sector rises by 9%, driven by JD.com (+13%). Alibaba, yesterday at historic lows, is up 5%. Tencent +7%.
The CSI 300 of the price lists Shanghai e Shenzen scores +3,9%. The rebound has several explanations: infections are falling (just over 3 cases, against 5 on Tuesday), fears of the escalation of confrontation with the West are declining and, above all, the drop in raw materials gives relief to the industry, exhausted by the run-up to prices. The restrictions imposed to stop the contagion will not allow the Chinese economy to reach the 5,5% growth target presented at the beginning of the month by the Beijing authorities: UBS says in the note that revises the forecast for 2022 downwards to +5 % from the previous one +5,4%.
The Nikkei of Tokyo is up 1,3. S&P/ASX 200's Sidney +1%. Kospi of Alone +0,8%. Straits Times by Singapore + 1,3%.
The Nasdaq rises, bonds at the top waiting for Powell
Wall Street futures are little moved after yesterday's rally: Nasdaq + 2,9% S & P500 + 2,1%.
The level of yields is maintained at the highest levels T-bonds at 2,14%. The Federal Reserve release comes out tonight. The market expects the first rate hike since 2018. The central bank also presents the forecasts of the FOMC members.
Il Petroleum WTI, yesterday down 6%, this morning marks a slight rise to 97 dollars. Gold on the lows for the period at 1.916 dollars an ounce.
Lagarde: growth remains robust. But the Zew falls
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia is capable of lowering growth and raising inflation "through higher energy and commodity prices, disruption of international trade and weaker confidence," he acknowledged Christine Lagarde. But the baseline scenario, he added, remains that of an economy growing “strongly in 2022 thanks to the diminishing impact of the pandemic and the prospect of robust domestic demand and robust labor markets”.
The relative optimism of the ECB president is justified by the drop in oil prices and the weak rebound of the euro. But German investors think differently: Confidence experienced a record drop in March due to the war in Ukraine and economic sanctions against Russia. The Zew Economic Sentiment Index it fell to -39,3 points from 54,3 in February, the sharpest drop ever in the history of the survey, first compiled in December 1991. "A recession is becoming increasingly likely," he said in a communicated the president of the institute, Achim Wambach.
Pending the decisions of the Fed (and those of Thursday of the Bank of England) the secondary closed with slight progress. The spread between the ten-year Italian and German it stops at 157 basis points. The yield of the BTP closes at 1,89%, the Bund at +0,33%.
Milan recovers after the US opening
Europe closed with a prevalence of red (despite the good rise of Wall Street with inflation below expectations), but with very small losses compared to the morning.
Business Square closes the day up by 0,31%, to 23.499 points, after losing even 2%.
Mixed climate in the rest of the Old Continent: Frankfurt it is flat; Paris loses 0,23%; Amsterdam +0,31%; Madrid +0,04%; London -0,25%.
The big names in luxury are down. But it is not the ban on exports to Moscow that weighs, if anything the new restrictions of the Covid -19 in China. Loses more than everyone Hermès (-3,13%) ahead of lvmh (-1,4%) ea Kering (-1,3%).
After a morning in deep red Piazza Affari starts again thanks to new thoroughbred horses. Among them stands out Atlantia (+2,96%) on the day in which Aspi asks for a plea deal for the Morandi bridge.
Generals: Caltagirone enlists Cirinà, head of the east
Sale Generali (+1,50%) in the wake of the balance sheet data and the presentation of the teams that will compete for the leadership of the Lion on 29 April. Caltagirone in his list proposes Claudio Costamagna as candidate for president. However, the surprise came with the indication of the managing director: Luciano Cirinà, who has been managing all of the group's Eastern Europe for years. This creates a bizarre situation: one of the top executives of the group in the field against the current CEO.
Unicredit prepares the retreat from Moscow
The list was pulled by banking and asset management securities: Banca Mediolanum gains 2,1% ahead of Azimuth (+1,7%). Well Bper (+2%), gain below the percentage point for Intesa Sanpaolo e Unicredit (+ 0,81%).
Speaking of Russia, “We are considering leaving – he said Andrea Orcell – obviously we have to take into account the complexity of the case and the consequences on the spot: we have 4 people, who for me are colleagues, and 1.250 client companies, who expect support from us even in the event of disengagement".
Unicredit Bank Russia makes 7,4 billion in local loans, but finances them with deposits from local current account holders. Its assets amount to 2,5 billion, and this is what it would lose in the event of the sale of the Russian network to a local group for a small sum. The Bank said that in the event of "extreme scenarios" it would lose 7,5 billion net.
Mfe-Mediaforeurope launches the takeover bid for Spain
The former Mediaset approved the launch of a public purchase and exchange offer (OPAS) on the shares of Mediaset España. The offer price is 5,613 euros per share (part in cash, part in shares).
braking of Tim (-2,01%) after the jump on the eve. Some brokers have cut the target price on the stock: Deutsche Bank brought the target to 0,30 euro from the previous 0,43 for both ordinary and savings bonds, while HSBC revised it to 0,40 euro from 0,50 .
Oil prices are down: Tenaris (-3,33%) is the rear of the main list which loses 4,7%. Down too Eni (-0,42%). Salt instead Saipem (+ 2,02%).
Among the worst titles too Moncler (-3,15%). In luxury they also suffer Tod’s (-2,64%) And Ferragamo (-3,78%).
The crisis scares Avio and Biesse. Run Erg
Heavy Avio, down by approximately 14,1% despite 2021 results in line with expectations. Equita writes that “the fourth quarter is in line in compliance with the operating guidance and the net cash is better. Lower guidance for 2022 due to prudence on energy, transport and supply chain costs". For this reason, the broker has reduced the target price by 3% to 14 euros.
Avanza Erg (+3,6%) after an uncertain start in the wake of the industrial plan to 2026, appreciated because it presents higher-than-expected estimates and a dividend of 0,9 euros as well as strong growth guidance for 2026.
Crolla biesse (-17%), despite the positive balance sheet data. The market prospects, given the geopolitical situation, are very bad: Banca Akros has reduced the judgment from buy to accumulated, with a target price that drops from 34 to 20,6 euros: the forecasts on revenues and EBITDA margin for 2022-2023 have been revised to take into account "the difficult scenario".
Intesa Sanpaolo on the other hand, it lowers the target to 25,5 euros: the increase in raw materials weighs on the company that operates in the market of machines and systems intended for the processing of wood, glass, stone, advanced materials and metal.
