The markets, these days, offer news in flurry. The decline of holds the table Walt Disney (-2,72%) ahead of Comcast (-1,98%) in the rush to purchase a large part of the empire of XNUMXst Century Fox (-0,30%) put up for sale by Rupert Murdoch. But the possible sale, destined to change the world balance of the media sector, actually has the flavor of an alliance: James Murdoch, Rupert's second son, would be destined to succeed Bob Iger at the head of the Mickey Mouse empire.
But the Disney-Murdoch case is an exception in the general panorama. In fact, the bull run slows down on the markets, waiting to evaluate the developments of Donald Trump's tax reform. Just to get an idea of the dimensions of the revolution, the calculation by analysts on the impact on Apple's accounts is enough: Apple could save, in the event of approval of the reform voted in the Senate, more than 47 billion dollars, paying only 31 (instead than 78) to the tax authorities to repatriate the immense treasure accumulated across the border.
JP MORGAN OPENS TO BITCOIN, WHICH SPREADS TO $12.441
The twists don't end there: Jamie Dimon, the number one of JP Morgan, who just a month ago said he would fire an employee who dared to invest in bitcoin, has backtracked. The bank has published a report in which, on the eve of the start of trading in the virtual currency on the Chicago Exchange, it advises customers to invest "in the emerging asset" which tonight reached 12.441 dollars: the price has doubled since October.
STOP ASIA. CHINA DOWN FOR EIGHT DAYS
Asian stock markets are losing ground under the pressure of the drop in metal prices, in turn linked to the increasingly marked slowdown in post-Congress China. In Tokyo, the Nikkei index loses 2%.
The dollar-denominated Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Index fell 0,2%, for the eighth consecutive day of decline. Above all, the companies of high technology and natural resources are down. Hong Kong loses 1,5%, the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges loses 0,7%. Seoul is starting to close down 1%. At the start of the session, Mumbai lost 0,2%.
NASDAQ DOWN AGAIN, OIL WEAK
Wall Street has slowed down after records. The Dow Jones is down 0,45%, S&P -0,37%. The attempt to recover the Nasdaq fails (-0,19%).
The euro recovered this morning to 1,1842 against the dollar, after losing 0,3% yesterday, closing at 1,182. Europe's single currency appreciates against the pound, at 0,881: Bloomberg wrote tonight that British Prime Minister Theresa May faces a rebellion within her own government, Boris Johnson and other ministers disagree on the mediation attempt with the European Union.
Calm oil, even if Trump's decision to move the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem risks triggering the fuse in the powder keg in the Middle East.
Brent is in parity at 62,62 dollars, WTI crude trades at 57,38. the Saudi oil minister said that the June meeting, wanted by Russia, could be an opportunity to raise production, scenario permitting. At Piazza Affari Saipem -1,16%, almost unchanged Eni (+ 0,07%).
The euphoria over the US tax reform having been archived for now, the European stock markets closed in no particular order after a day of ups and downs, without a precise direction.
MILAN IN POLE POSITION IN EUROPE
In the end, the best stock exchange was Milan: the Ftse Mib index closed up 0,24% at 22.416 points with thin volumes (2.13 billion euro): the market is approaching the long Sant'Ambrogio weekend.
The other lists were weaker: Dax at +0,07%, Paris -0,14%. Plus sign also for Madrid (+0,04%). The Eurostoxx closes at -0,1%.
New confirmations of Europe's good state of health are coming from the composite PMI. The data that measures business activity rose to 57,5 points, up from 56,0 in October and perfectly in line with expectations. This is the highest level since April 2011, well above the threshold of 50 which marks the watershed between expansion and contraction.
Comforting signals also for the Bel Paese. The Istat index, which anticipates the trend of the Italian economy, recorded a further increase in November, reinforcing the short-term growth prospects.
Positive news for Spain, just a few days (December 21) before the early elections in Catalonia. Industrial production grew in October by 4,1% on an annual basis, better than expectations which remained at +3,7%.
This is the sharpest increase since August 2016. Spain's Supreme Court yesterday withdrew the international arrest warrant against the former leader of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, and four other members of the government, underlining that politicians showed the willingness to return to Spain.
REVIVAL OF THE SUBURBS: PORTUGAL SHINES, GREECE RETURNS
Thin volumes also for the secondary market. Italian bonds recorded yields close to the minimums for the year after a particularly positive performance on the short end of the curve. Thus, the gap between the ten-year BTP and the German counterpart is kept below 140 basis points, weakened by the arrangements in view of the reopening of the Bund today in August 2027.
Among the peripherals of the euro zone, the positive dynamics of Portuguese paper stands out, benefiting from today's announcement of a Treasury swap operation which will allow Lisbon both to reduce interest payments and to lengthen the average life of the debt.
Today is the first day of trading for the five new Greek bonds issued on the occasion of the swap closed with 86,1% of the issues involved, a decisive test of market approval. Yesterday yields closed sharply down: on two and ten year maturities there was a contraction of 20 basis points to 2,25% and 4,73% respectively. These are the lowest levels since November 2009, the date before the explosion of the debt crisis. Greece intends to return to placing government bonds on the primary market immediately after the conclusion of the current 86 billion bailout planned for 2018 scheduled for January 21st.
TELECOM APPROVES THE INDUSTRIAL PLAN AND THE BUDGET
The best blue chip of the day was Mediaset (+2,78%). Mediobanca Securities raised the outperform recommendation and the target price to 3,76 euro. According to analysts, recent updates on the advertising sales front are "encouraging".
In the afternoon the Board of Telecom Italy (+0,5%), by majority vote, authorized the top management to continue negotiating the a new agreement with Mediaset for the purchase of content via decoder, smart TV, web and mobile app. The company is negotiating similar agreements with other market players. The 2018-2020 strategic plan provides for a converging offer of video content together with fixed and mobile. The board also examined the guidelines of the new industrial plan and approved the preliminary budget for 2018.
PRYSMIAN, ANALYSTS LIKE THE GENERAL CABLE OPERATION
After a promising start, Prysmian (-1,32%) suffered a further decline after Monday's crash on the announcement of the purchase of General Cable. Yet analysts have promoted the acquisition. Banca Imi raised its opinion to buy (target at 34,8 from 29,9). Credit Suisse was also positive (outperform, target 30 euros).
“We believe – reads the report – that the adverse price reaction on the stock exchange is linked to the fact that the valuation was higher than expected. Once this has been digested, we expect the focus to shift to post-synergie multiples, with in particular the p/e ratio (price to earnings) which, taking into account the financial synergies as well, appears at a 30% discount compared to its competitors". Green light for the operation also from Morgan Stanley, which raises the target price of the share to 33 from 30 euros and from Equita (target 31 euros). In contrast, Kepler Chevreux has reduced the target from 31 to 30 euros: the US operation is strategic but expensive.
Meanwhile, CEO Valerio Battista confirmed to analysts that the company has other "small-scale" acquisitions in the pipeline to be made in the coming months and is therefore evaluating a capital increase of 500 million euros.
UTILITIES ON THE SHIELD: A2A AND ENEL FLY
The season of grace for utilities continues. Enel +1,01%, at 5,52 euros, is just a breath away from the highs of 2008 (5,55). The push came yesterday from the RBC broker, which raised the group's target to 6 euros. Meanwhile, EF Solare Italia, a joint venture between Enel and F2i, is among the potential buyers of RTR -Rete Rinnovabile, controlled by the private equity firm Terra Firma, which owns a portfolio of photovoltaic plants for 332 megawatts.
Highlights too A2A (+1,4%). Evaluations are proceeding in view of an industrial and corporate partnership with a group of Lombard utilities (Acsm, Agam, Aspem, Lario Reti Holding and Aevv). The parties have shared a technical document in which the possible guidelines of the operation have been outlined. Mediobanca and Banca Akros expressed their views on the stock, ratifying the purchase advice with targets of €1,61 and €1,65 respectively.
TOWARDS THE GOAL THE INCREASE OF CARIGE
Contrasted in Europe the banking sector, after the leap on the eve. Among the big sale only Unicredit -0,59% on the day in which the meeting of savings shareholders approved the proposal for mandatory conversion into ordinary shares. Intesa and Mediobanca fell by just over half a point. In negative territory the former Popolari: Bpm bank -2,35% Ubi -1,29% Bper -0,52%.
While the climate of the parliamentary commission of inquiry heats up, the restructuring of the most delicate positions continues. On the eve of the conclusion of the capital increase of Carige (+1% to 0,0101 euro) the amount already guaranteed rose to 460 million. The historic shareholders (Malacalza, Volpi and Spinelli) will contribute 130 million and the same amount will come from Credito Fondiario, Sga and Chenavari (which took over Creditis). Minor stakes were booked by Algebris, Banca Ifis and by some of the bondholders.
Step forward for too Creval (-2,54%). The Bank has signed an agreement for the transfer of a portfolio consisting of secured non-performing loans to Hoist Finance.
DEUTSCHE BANK LAUNCHES MONCLER AND TOD'S
Among the blue chips, the performance of Moncler (+2,65%), driven by the assessments of the Deutsche Bank luxury report. The broker promoted the stock to Buy, targeting 23,50 euros (from 21,50). This morning Deutsche Bank upgraded the judgment to Buy, from Hold. The target was raised to 23,50 euros from 21,50 euros.
The broker also awarded Tod’s (+1,7%): Buy judgment (from the previous hold), but target lowered to 70 euros (from 71). Compared to the current quotation (57,1) the revaluation space is around 20%.
FIDIA TO THE STARS THANKS TO VOLKSWAGEN
Among the small caps worth mentioning Phidias: +30,35%, at 7 euros. The San Mauro Torinese company has acquired three orders from the Volkswagen group: two large highly automated machines will be supplied to Skoda for the machining of bodywork molds at the Mlada Boleslav plant – Czech Republic – and a third machine will be supplied to Seat for the production of full-size models in the Style Center of Barcelona. Both projects are expected to be delivered by the end of next year.
New leap forward by TV world (+8,77%) after Edison Research raised its target price to 9 euros (potential increase of 30%) following the presentation of the new industrial plan and the recent production agreements with Netflix and various Chinese players.
