“Of the nearly 1,2 million households benefiting from Basic income, around 400.000 (33,6%) are excluded from theInclusion check because there are no protected subjects within them". Of the 790 families that remain, around 97 (over 12%) are excluded from the new subsidy due to the economic constraints imposed by the new rules. Overall, therefore, "the households benefiting from the inclusion allowance would amount to approximately 740.000, of which 690.000 already beneficiaries of RdC and 50.000 new beneficiaries due to the modification of the residence constraint".
These are the stime contained in the "Report on Budgetary Policy" presented this morning by the PBO, theParliamentary Budget Office.
From Citizenship Income to Inclusion Allowance
"Overall - explains the Authority - also considering the greater resources deriving from the full compatibility between AdI and Single check, the households previously holders of the RdC who will receive the AdI will receive resources equal to 6,1 billion, with an increase in benefits about 190 million, while the households previously holders of RdC excluded from the AdI would lose 2,7 billion”.
The UPB experts then estimated the distribution of nuclei, distinguishing them by the presence of protected subjects, according to the variation of the overall benefit. Overall, around 42% of households previously beneficiaries of the Citizenship Income who do not access the Inclusion Allowance, with an average monthly loss of around 460 euros.
Reform, on the contrary, benefits them families with disabled people, which will meet an average increase in the benefit of 64 euros per month. The households with minors (not disabled) who are most affected by the modification of the calculation of the basic amount of the AdI, increase the overall benefit by slightly more (+124 euros on average per month) and the remainder receive lower allowances (33,7, 140%, losing about 13,7 euros) or receive none at all (194%, losing about 9 euros per month). On average, the benefit is substantially stable (-XNUMX euros on average per month).
It flies, i households with elderly people over 60 (without the disabled and minors) are those for whom the reform affects the benefit least: for 71% little or nothing will change, for 10,4% the amount will be reduced by 173 euros per month, while 14,8% he will not perceive it at all, losing 101 euros. Considering the complex of households with elderly people, on average, the benefits are reduced by about 29 euros on average per month.
With regard to the territorial distributionand, like the Citizenship Income, the Inclusion Allowance will also be mainly the prerogative of families in the South: 65,8%.
Upb, inflation at the top since 1985: "Concentrate interventions on the most needy families"
In 2022 l 'inflation reached 8,1%, the highest level since 1985. A surge that had a strong impact on household spending. According to estimates by the Upb, in fact, "for 2022, the impact on household spending associated with the price increase would have been around 9,6% (of which around 7 percentage points for increases in the prices of goods energy and 2,7 for inflation on other goods), but mitigation policies helped to alleviate it by about 4,5 points, bringing it down to 5,1 percentage points”.
In fact, the Parliamentary Office notes that last year, thanks to the various measures put in place, the impact of inflation on households was "basically progressive" to the advantage of less well-off households, while in 2023 the increase in the prices of goods non-energy products and the recomposition of the mix of compensatory policies produced "weakly regressive overall effects", with a greater impact therefore than inflation on less wealthy households. By virtue of this analysis, the PBO's invitation is to concentrate new interventions of inflation containment "on the most needy families, in order to accentuate its redistributive nature".
Upb: 2023 positive, but the opportunities of the Pnrr must be seized
In 2022 the Italian GDP grew by 3,7%. "The Italian economy has shown resilience and ability to react to the energy shock", underlines the president of the Upb, Lilia Cavallari, adding that “the growth prospects remain favorable in the short term, driven by a renewed ability to attract foreign demand and by a sustained dynamic of the domestic components of demand, in particular investments".
Indeed, in the first three months of 2023, GDP growth (+0,6%) resulted better than expected both from the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and from the Upb panel. At the moment they qualify therefore risks up on this year's estimates. In the medium term (especially for 2024) the risk factors for our country are confirmed to be downward-oriented, as are expectations on the global economic context.
For this reason the Pnrr becomes even more fundamental. The implementation of the Plan and its timing “represent a fundamental element to be taken into account in the evaluation of the macroeconomic and public finance forecasts. Currently, according to an updated estimate by the Upb, the Pnrr will have an impact on GDP of almost three percentage points in 2026. At the moment, a reformulation of the Plan is underway aimed at favoring the feasibility of the projects. The consequences on budget balances and on the economy will therefore have to be carefully evaluated”.
They will be fully understood - highlights the president Cavallari - all opportunity open from revision of the Pnrr to ensure new impetus to the reform action and infrastructural upgrading, both essential for overcoming the generational, gender and territorial gaps and allowing the economy to face the technological and environmental challenges that await the country".
Beware of coverage on the tax authorities and the public administration
The public finance programmatic scenario of the Def 2023 “confirms the path of reduction of the deficit and public debt in relation to GDP. The objective of a deficit of 3% of GDP in 2025 (3,7% in 2024) is confirmed, and a further reduction to 2,5% in 2026 is planned. The strategy of gradually reducing the ratio of public debt to GDP has been reiterated: after the decline recorded in 2022, the ratio between public debt and GDP is expected to decrease further in the following years, going from 142,1% in 2023 to 140,4% in 2026".
By virtue of these numbers, according to the PBO, "the stability of the budget planning balances presented in the Def 2023 appears appropriate". However, underlines the Authority “the uncertainties concerning the identification of suitable financial hedges of the interventions that are envisaged”, such as the renewal of public employment contracts, the measures on pensions, the reduction of the tax burden and the new measures that the government will decide to adopt in the manoeuvre.
“Overall – we read – conspicuous resources appear to be necessary, which it seems difficult to find without affecting” services and social policies.
