ASIA ON THE RISE. BTPs TAKE THE FITCH EXAM.
THE ATLANTIA-GEMINA WEDDING AT THE PIAZZA AFFARI TEST
How much can Fitch's relegation weigh? As is known, on Friday evening the agency cut Italy's long-term issuer rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-' with a negative outlook following the "inconclusive result" of the general election on 24-25 February. Short-term rating confirmed at 'F2'.
Fitch's Ax arrives on the eve of the mid-month auctions. The 12-month BOT auction is scheduled for tomorrow, followed on Wednesday by the 3-year BTPs and CCTEUs. The downgrade is highly unlikely to have an immediate effect. As underlined by Economy Minister Vittorio Grilli, the impact of agencies on the market in recent months has proved to be less strong than in the past. But the most disturbing signal could come from a further decline in the spread between Italian and Spanish bonds, also due for auction tomorrow.
Before the Fitch news, however, the improvement in the government bond market had been marked. The Btp/Bund spread had fallen below 300 during the day and then closed at 305, down by 3 basis points. The yield of the ten-year BTP had fallen to 4,58%. The ten-year Spanish bond leapt very sharply, with the yield down to 4,73% at only 15 points of spread compared to the BTP.
THE INDEXES
The escalation of the Korean crisis does not scare the Asian markets too much. The Asia Pacific index rose to a 19-month high this morning. The Seoul Stock Exchange falls by 0,2%.
Tokyo up +0,17% on the wave of data arriving from the USA and the weaker yen. The new governor of the Boj, Kuroda, anticipated that he does not rule out the purchase of derivatives by the central bank.
On the other hand, a negative start for China after the announcement of industrial production data in the first two months of the year: +9,9%, the weakest result since 2009.
Wall Street restarts today from stratospheric levels: the Dow Jones index +0,47% closed the week at 143 points, on levels close to the historical record. The S&P500 index is up by 0,45%, at the start of the session it had reached a new high in the last 5 and a half years. The Nasdaq rose 0,38%. The boost to the market came from the employment data: 236.000 new jobs in February, 79.000 more than in January and well beyond expectations (165.000). In the private sector, the net change is positive for 246.000 jobs (expected at 170.000).
Unemployment in the United States drops to 7,7% from 7,9%, back to 2008 levels.
For the Milan Stock Exchange, last week closed with a positive variation of 3,2%, which brings the performance since the beginning of the year to -0,4%, the only negative in the European panorama evidently due to the very strong political uncertainties.
The overall index of the Stoxx 600 European Stock Exchanges rose today by 0,7% and closed the week with +2,1%. Year-to-date performance is +5,5%.
All the European stock exchanges rose on Friday, but those of Italy and Spain made the greatest run, the two countries whose economies are suffering the most from the current recession.
The Milan Stock Exchange recorded an increase of 1,6%.
The Madrid Stock Exchange gained 2,8%
BUSINESS CENTER: TO FOLLOW BANKS AND IMPREGILO
In the spotlight this morning Atlantia and Gemina. The exchange ratios were announced on Friday evening in view of the merger between the two companies, destined to kick off the creation of a leading group in the infrastructure field. The plan provides for the exchange of 1 ordinary Atlantia share for every 9 of the holding company that controls the Aeroporti di Roma. Numbers quite close to Thursday's quotations, the last available before the suspension: Atlantia +3,16% had closed at 12,74 euros against Gemina +1,47% at 1,385. The ratio was equal to 9,19 Gemina for 1 Atlantia share.
Great expectations for the bank boards called to approve the financial statements and to reveal the dividend strategy. Tomorrow the top management of Banca Intesa will meet, on Friday it will be the turn of Unicredit.
The end of the week was positive for the sector: Mediobanca pulled the lead +3,9%, followed by Unicredit +2,8%. Intesa +1,6%, Banco Popolare +2,9%.
Also awaited for the results of Impregilo's board of directors on Sunday, dedicated to the opinion of the independents on the takeover bid launched by Salini and the big coupon after the sale of Ecorodovias.
However, it was industrial stocks that led the rally on Friday.
Fiat +5,5%, Finmeccanica +5,5%, Pirelli +2,7%, StM +1,9%.
Telecom Italia rose by 3,9% on a day of general increases for the entire European telecommunications sector, led by France Telecom which gained 3,6%.
For Mediaset, the increase was 4,3%.
Some utilities are also highlighted in the main basket. Enel Green Power +4,1%, A2A +4,1%.
Among the oil companies, strong increase by Saipem +3%. Eni closed down 0,1%.
In asset management, positive leaps for Mediolanum +3,3% and Banca Generali +5%. Reverse Azimuth-1,6%.
Generali rose by 2,5%, Unipol by 3%.
