La Russia will not deliver anymore either Petroleum nor gas nor carbon to the countries that will introduce a ceiling on the price of gas. The threat comes from the Russian president, Vladimir Putin: limiting prices “would be an absolutely stupid decision – said the number one of the Kremlin in an economic forum in Vladivostok – We will not deliver anything if it is contrary to our interests, in this case economic. Neither gas, nor oil, nor coal". A few hours earlier the news had also been released that Putin intends to propose to the Turkish premier Erdogan to limit grain exports to the EU.
All these threats give a measure of how much the Russian president actually fears the European price cap on the gas. Indeed, if it is true that Europe is still dependent on Russia for its methane needs, it is equally true that the Russian economy – affected by sanctions and import blocks – is dependent on gas sales. And the Russia it cannot afford to do without a customer like the EU overnight. True, before the attack in Ukraine Moscow has signed an agreement for the construction of a 3-kilometre gas pipeline capable of bringing up to 55 billion cubic meters of gas a year to China. In this way, Russia has launched a strategy of rapprochement with Beijing which in the future will open a commercial outlet capable of replacing the European market, but it will still take a long time for such a project to materialize.
In the 2022 Russian GDP it will drop by 2,9%, Moscow said. But second Bloomberg, who has seen an internal Kremlin report, the real impact of sanctions and economic isolation will be far greater: theRussian economy it will collapse by 8,3% in 2023 compared to 2021 and even by 11,9% in 2024.
Electricity: Europe towards a price cap of 200 euros for electricity not produced from gas
Meanwhile, the European Commission is considering proposing a price cap di 200 euros per megawatt hour at the price of electricity produced from alternative sources to gas. He writes it today Financial Times, which cites as a source "draft proposals" being studied by the Community executive, texts which recommend to the Member States to impose the price cap on electricity obtained from renewable sources (starting from wind power), but also from nuclear power plants and from coal ones.
Why exactly 200 euros per megawatt hour?
According to Brussels, 200 euros per megawatt hour would be the share at which market prices would settle if supply chains functioned regularly. Furthermore, this threshold could be chosen because it is considered high enough not to discourage future investments in alternative sources to gas.
Possible obligations to reduce consumption
The drafts consulted by FT also contain other hypotheses, such as the introduction of new obligations to reduce electricity consumption by 5% during peak usage times. The European Commission's proposals will be discussed today by the permanent representatives of the 27 EU member states (Coreper), ahead of the emergency meeting of energy ministers scheduled for Friday.
Gas: waiting for the price cap causes prices to fall
Meanwhile, it is precisely the expectation for the EU's response to the new threats by Russian President Vladimir Putin against Western sanctions that is pushing gas prices down. After a still upward start, the TTF contract, which is the reference for the price of methane in Europe, has changed course and on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange it yields 2,7, at 233 euros per megawatt hour.
The prices of oil and grain
Change of direction, but in the opposite direction, also for oil, down this morning and now growing slightly (Wti +0,84% to 8,76 dollars a barrel Brent +0,9% to 93,6). Putin's words weigh heavily on a possible stop to crude oil supplies if the EU sets a ceiling on the price of gas.
In the agricultural field, the Russian president's idea of proposing to the Turkish premier Erdogan to limit grain exports to the EU does not help the prices of durum wheat (+2,7% to 906 dollars a bushel) and soft wheat (+ 3,3% to $844).
