The manufacturing industry slows pace in the first five months of 2018. It grows, but less than the end of 2017. The Prometeia-Intesa Sanpaolo Report on the Analysis of Industrial Sectors confirms the slowdown.
“In the first months of 2018 – explains the summary of the Report – the manufacturing turnover confirmed its growth, albeit at a slower pace than in the last months of 2017: the trend increase was 4.2% between January and May, current values, with modest price support (+1.3%)”.
The slowdown is mainly due to the internal market. The foreign component of the turnover is more dynamic, reflecting Italy's good competitiveness on international markets, where there has still been a gain in market shares.
Almost all sectors are characterized by a more moderate growth rate compared to 2017, with the exception of Pharmaceuticals, with strong exports that are always driving force, and Mechanics, which benefits from the investment cycle. The metal supply chain and electrical engineering also achieved above-average results, supported by the upgrading process of the Italian industrial system. Conversely, in the Automotive sector there was a more marked slowdown than expected.
“The short-term prospects – underlines the survey – appear to be good: despite the elements of uncertainty in the scenario, both internally and internationally, consumer and business confidence is returning to high levels, after a retreat in the first months of the 2018. Growth fundamentals remain solid, both on the domestic front, consumption and investments, and on that of exports. In the next few months, extra-EU markets could drive more, thanks also to a more favorable exchange rate”.
At the time of the publication of the Report, which took place on Friday, "the risk of a protectionist escalation, which still remains one of the most uncertain variables in the scenario, appears to have reduced compared to a few weeks ago". The analysis carried out starting from the international input-output matrices shows, in fact, the existence of important links between the United States and the rest of the world, both in terms of production chains and exports, giving an idea of how much the the imposition of tariff measures could directly or indirectly damage the entire world economy.
