The main measures contained in the electoral programmes Brothers of Italy e Alloy they would increase the expenditure of the State by an inclusive figure between 111 and 165 billion euros. But the account is not exhaustive, because both the programs of the two main parties and that of the centre-right coalition (which also includes Forza Italia and Noi Moderati) contain "vague provisions e they do not indicate financial coverage for the most weighty proposals". That's what we read in one new study by the Observatory on Italian public accounts, structure led by Carlo Cottarelli, economist candidate on the Pd lists in the next elections.
Flat tax
On the side flat tax, the Observatory points out that the Brothers of Italy and the League agree on the first part of the operation, ie the increase from 65 thousand to 100 thousand euros of the turnover ceiling that allows access to VAT flat-rate scheme. On the basis of Treasury numbers, the Observatory continues, the cost of the measure can be estimated at one billion euros.
However, the two programs seem to diverge on the second phase. That of Brothers of Italy contains a vague definition: "Introduction of the flat tax on the increase in income compared to previous years, with the prospect of a further expansion for households and businesses".
La Alloy instead, more explicitly, it proposes the introduction of the substitute tax on increases in Irpef and Ires and the extension of the flat tax to all physical and legal persons with no income limits. “When fully operational – explains the Observatory – the cost of the universal extension of the flat tax would be approx 58 billion euros, without considering any revenue recovery due to the emergence of the shadow economy. Even assuming a recovery equal to the maximum of the Irpef revenue now evaded or evaded (38 billion), the permanent burden for the state caused by the measure would still be 20 billion".
Pensions: Quota 41
The other banner in the League's program is the "overcoming of the Fornero law" with the introduction of share 41, which would allow you to retire with 41 years of contributions regardless of age. “The annual cost for the next legislature varies from the 5,9 billion planned for 2023 to the 8,2 billion for 2027 – claims the Observatory – but the Inps report highlights a further increase for the following years: in 2029, Quota 41 would have an impact on public taxation of 9,5 billion euros. The estimated total cost for the period 2023-2031 would exceed 70 billion euros, according to INPS data”.
Cutting the tax wedge
As regards the tax wedge, the League proposes a reduction of 10 points in 10 years, but does not clarify "whether this is an additional proposal compared to the flat tax - writes the Observatory again - or if the effects of the latter should be incorporated in this issue" and "they do not even specify which workers are involved or the components of the tax wedge subject to reduction (IRPEF, INPS contributions paid by the worker or contributions paid by the employer)".
If we consider all types of workers and the total revenue deriving from the tax wedge, once fully implemented (i.e. starting from the tenth year) this measure would cause an annual shortfall in the state coffers of approximately 43,5 billion. If, on the other hand, the reduction of the tax wedge concerned only employees (public and private), the annual cost "upon completion of the measure would be approximately 37,4 billion".
Reduction of the Imu
The League's program speaks generically of a "revision of the tax on property ownership in order to progressively lower the burden". Therefore, abolishing only the quota destined to the State would cost 3,7 billion euros, while a remodulation of the rates to reduce the IMU revenue by 30% would weigh over 6 billion the year on the public accounts.
Energy
To counter the increase in energy prices, the League proposes to reiterate and extend most of the measures taken in 2022. According to the Observatory, assuming that we want to cover the entire year 2023 with the same amounts allocated in 2022 and that the inflation of energy goods is 45% trend also next year, “the minimum cost of the measure is around 37,2 billion euros”, while “the maximum cost is approx 41,6 billion".
Single Check
Fratelli d'Italia wants to increase by 175 260 in euros the maximum amount ofUnique and Universal Cheque. Furthermore, for the first year of a child's life, it is proposed to increase the allowance to 300 euros per month. The Observatory calculates that these measures, if not compensated in any other way, would entail an additional cost for the State equal to approximately 7,2 billion. “If, on the other hand, the minimum amount were also reformulated (maintaining a décalage between ISEE classes of 25 euros, as in the current brackets) the cost of the measure would be 8,4 billion".
