Despite global GDP growth both recovered to 5,9% in 2021, the latest Economic outlook of Atradius expects that it will drop to 3,1% in 2022, Since inflation is squeezing consumer spending and supply chain issues constrain trade. By 2023 growth will slow further to 3,0%.
Inflation
During this year global CPI inflation will rise to 7,6%, then presumably fall to 3,8% in 2023. The general price level has started to rise due to increased demand as Covid restrictions are eased, in the face of reduced production levels come on lockdowns. Since then the war in Ukraine has exacerbated the situation, with shortages and consequent increases in the price of raw materials, especially fuel and grain. And now central banks have started raising interest rates to fight inflation and normalize monetary policy in the wake of the pandemic.
global trade
Although global trade was growing in early 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions have completely halted this trend. China's "Covid zero" policy and related lockdowns have contributed to block global trade.
GDP of advanced economies
The growth of the GDP in advanced economies it is expected to slow to 2,7% in 2022 and 2,1% in 2023. Consumers are feeling the pressure of rising inflation, generally driven by high energy prices in Europe and imbalances between supply and demand in the US. The continuing global supply problems hamper export growth in advanced economies, together with general fiscal consolidation.
The GDP of emerging economies
It is expected that the growth of GDP in emerging economies (EME) will be almost halved in 2022 to 3,5%, compared to 6,9% in 2021. These are also feeling the pressure of supply chain bottlenecks and inflation, but due to lower vaccination rates they are also at greater risk of new outbreaks of Covid. The Middle East and emerging Asia are expected to maintain the highest growth this year.
The factor of war in Ukraine
The continuation and escalation of the war in Ukraine is the main risk to the economic outlook, potentially leading to 1,7% lower GDP growth by the end of 2022. All regions would be affected by shortages, commodity prices raw materials and political instability, with the Old Continent and Eastern Europe in particular being the hardest hit.
