Due to the coronavirus, Italy's GDP will drop by 2020% in the first quarter of 0,3 compared to the October-December period of 2019. Our country will thus return to a technical recession for the fourth time since 2009, which occurs when the domestic product gross undergoes two consecutive quarterly declines. The Prometeia research center writes it, specifying that the estimate for the first quarter has worsened by 0,4% compared to the last forecast.
The same Bolognese institute of economic analysis also offers a series of data useful for understanding the impact that the coronavirus emergency could have on the Italian economy.
HOW MUCH DO THE PROVINCES/REGIONS INVOLVED BY THE BLOCK OF ACTIVITIES WEIGHT ON THE NATIONAL GDP?
In all, the regions involved so far produce 54% of the Italian GDP, distributed as follows:
- Lombardy (22,1%);
- Veneto (9,2%);
- Piedmont (7,8%);
- Emilia-Romagna (9,2%);
- Trentino Alto Adige (2,6%);
- Liguria (2.8%).
At the provincial level, however, that of Lodi produces 0,4% of the national GDP and that of Milan even 10.2%.
HOW MUCH DO THE ACTIVITIES MOST DIRECTLY INVOLVED HAVE ON GDP?
Taking into consideration only Lombardy, the most affected region, total services represent 16% of the national GDP, a figure that drops to 5,7% if we consider only the activities that are expected to suffer the greatest damage due to the coronavirus (trade, tourism , transport, accommodation and catering).
WHICH ACTIVITIES WILL RECOVER FIRST?
According to Prometeia, “if the albeit modest signs of recovery in orders observed in January were to be confirmed, the industry could quickly recover from any production stops in the space of a few months”.
The case of many services is different, “the use of which cannot be postponed. Think, for example, of the tourist expenses activated by the Venice and Viareggio carnivals, or of closed cinemas, canceled fairs, fashion shows and matches without an audience". In that case we speak of dry losses, not recoverable.
WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE TOURISM SECTOR?
Prometeia believes that throughout the spring the tourism sector will feel the effects of the coronavirus, with a slowdown in arrivals. "In addition to the blockade of Chinese tourism for this year - reads the analysis - greater caution can also be expected of tourism (including business trips) of other nationalities: assuming a blockage of foreign entries for a month and a zero growth compared to last year in the following months, the additional negative effect on the annual GDP would be 0,3%”.
..this country needs like oxygen a "deregionalization" .