In third quarter the Italian GDP will raise its head and rebound compared to the April-June period could exceed 10%. The Ref Ricerche study center writes it in its latest report on the economic situation.
The analysis shows that in July "Cig hours, while remaining very high in absolute terms, have more than halved compared to the April peak. Likewise, always in July employment it returned to growth compared to the previous month, after a six-month period of continuous declines”.
But there are many indicators that highlight a recovery phase that began with the reopenings in May and then continued during the summer. In particular, Ref Ricerche places the accent on the "consumption of energy inputs", which "approximated the levels of 2019 in August". For example, industrial consumption of gas and electricity, after falling respectively by 24,6 and 17,8% year-on-year in April, in the summer they recorded much smaller declines, if not a complete recovery: -3,5 and -6,9% in July; +1,4 and -4,2% in August.
Also the data on petrol consumption in July (-5,8% over the year, from -51,9% in April) highlight "a gradual normalization of mobility - continues the report - while car registrations continued to climb".
On the front of the , the situation remains very difficult, "but less serious than the expectations that prevailed in the period following the lockdown - underlines Ref Ricerche - Tourism has gone better than expected thanks to the choice of Italians not to travel abroad for fear of being infected or of new border closures”.
In any case, even at the end of the second quarter, "the gap to be filled to return to pre-crisis levels will remain significant – concludes the analysis – The fear is that as early as the fourth quarter the recovery may lose momentum, also following the introduction of new measures to restrict behaviour. The goal must be to limit the spread of the virus without having to resort to a second lockdown".
