After the government, Istat and the European Commission, too the OECD raises estimates of Italian GDP growth. In the Economic Outlook published today, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has revised upwards by 0,1%, for this year and next, the estimates relating to our country compared to the update released last 16 September. Here are the new numbers:
– GDP 2015 +0,8%
– GDP 2016 +1,4%
– GDP 2017 +1,4%
To introduce terms of comparison and clarify, let's summarize the latest forecasts published on the trend of the Italian GDP, which are substantially in line with those provided today by the OECD:
– GDP 2015 +0,9%
– GDP 2016 +1,5%
– GDP 2017 +1,4%
– GDP 2015 +0,9%
– GDP 2016 +1,4%
– GDP 2017 +1,4%
– GDP 2015 +0,9%
– GDP 2016 +1,6%
OECD: DEFICITS, DEBT AND THE LABOR MARKET ALSO IMPROVE IN ITALY
Again according to the OECD, the budget deficit will drop this year to 2,6% of GDP (from 3% in 2014) and then to 2,2% in 2016 and 1,6% in 2017. The Organization it also expects public debt to peak at 134,3% of GDP this year, followed by a moderation to 133,5% in 2016 and 131,8% in 2017.
As for the Italian labor market, "it is improving – reads the report -, helping private consumption to increase". The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12,3% this year (from 12,7% in 2014) and then to 11,7% in 2016 and 11% in 2017.
The OECD praises the "significant reforms" carried out by Italy and in particular the Jobs Act, which together with the exemption from contributions for three years on new hires is "guiding a turning point" in employment. In the chapter on Italy included in the Economic Outlook, the Parisian institution notes that these reforms have "led to a substantial increase in permanent contracts and widened the social safety net, making growth more inclusive".
CUT YOUR GLOBAL GDP FORECAST
As far as global GDP is concerned, the OECD once again cuts its forecasts. In the Economic Outlook, the Parisian institution estimates +2,9% for this year (down from the +3,3% in 2014), +3,3% for next year and +3,6 % for 2017.
Last September, the Organization had estimated global growth at 3% in 2015 and 3,6% in 2016. The study cites "a new sharp slowdown in emerging economies", which, combined with the slowdown in global trade, is ballast growth.
According to the secretary general of the OECD, Anguel Gurria, the slowdown in trade and “the persistent weakness of investments are very worrying. Global leaders must renew their efforts to ensure solid, sustainable and balanced growth."
