This year the Italian GDP will drop by 2,3%, while in 2013 it will drop by 0,5%, "despite the attenuation of the unfavorable impulses and a moderate recovery of the economic activity in the second semester". That's what he expects Istat in the "Prospects for the Italian economy in 2012-2013". The Statistical Institute is more optimistic than the Government and the Bank of Italy on 2012, but the report reverses on expectations for next year. According to the latest update to the Economic and Financial Document, the Executive expects a GDP in recession of 2,4% in 2012 and 0,2% in 2013. Palazzo Koch in the most recent economic bulletin is in line with the Government on the 2012 but speaks of a -0,7% for next year.
Istat underlines that the fall in GDP – which began in the third quarter of 2011 – should continue with increasingly limited intensity until the second quarter of 2013. LThe duration of the current crisis would thus exceed both that of the two-year period 2008-09 (5 quarters) and that of the period 1992-93 (6 quarters).
As for economic activity in the second half of 2012, "it will be marked by a trend that continues to decline, albeit at a significantly less intense pace than in the first half of the year", observes Istat. What weighs most heavily is the collapse of domestic demand (-3,6%), only partially offset by foreign demand (about double compared to 2011). The contribution of inventories should be negative on average for 2012 (-1,5%).
The crisis of demand is linked to that of consumption, which in 2012 will suffer a sharp setback. Again according to Istat, private consumption expenditure will register a contraction of 3,2%. In 2013 the figure will continue to decrease (-0,7%), "following the persistent difficulties on the labor market and the weakness of nominal incomes".
The Institute of Statistics believes that "the fall in disposable income, the climate of uncertainty perceived by consumers and the implementation of economic policy measures aimed at consolidating public finances would penalize consumer spending". Furthermore, "the growing situation of financial hardship declared by households would lead, initially, to a continuation in the use of savings, which could be followed by a negative evolution in consumption patterns".
