“Sell in may and go away”, goes the stock market proverb, supported by academic studies cited by the Economist: in 81 of the 108 countries monitored by two scholars, Ben Jacobsen and Cherry Yi Zhang, in May stocks returned less than bonds. And the rule, at least for Tokyo, remains valid. This morning the Nikkei index (-3,4%) was hit by massive sales, caused by a new rise in the yen to 106,1 against the dollar, the highest in 18 months. In one week, the currency rose by 4,7%, the most violent since October 2008.
In fact, the thin volumes of a holiday session favored the Bear launch: the Japanese market, in fact, will close its doors from tonight to Friday for the "golden week" celebration. The price lists of Hong Kong, China and Singapore are also on hold today. However, there is a growing belief that Japanese premier Shinzo Abe intends to announce a new stimulus plan for the economy before the G7 meeting at the end of the month.
Therefore, the visit of the Japanese premier to various European capitals, including Italy, should be followed carefully. Meanwhile, the economic situation also remains weak in China: the PMI index slows down to 50,1 (against a forecast of 50,3), despite the strong growth in loans to businesses and households (361 billion dollars, triple the previous month ).
THE AGENDA: PMI AND QE IN EUROPE, US EMPLOYMENT
Therefore, alarm signals are emerging from Asia, but the recovery of oil and the soft attitude of the central banks lead us to look at the prospects of the other markets with moderate optimism.
There will be great attention on the stock market for the major maneuvers of the oil-producing countries in anticipation of the summit in early June. In April, oil recorded robust increases: Brent gained 20% (to 48 dollars a barrel), which adds to the +10% in March. The American WTI rose by 19%, in March it had scored +13%.
The PMI data for the main Eurozone countries, including Italy, will be released this morning. Meanwhile, in the morning the European Central Bank will communicate the amount of Qe purchases in April, the month in which Eurozone government bonds recorded their worst performance since last August, despite the increase (from 60 to 80 billion) of interventions : the ten-year BTP yield rose in April from 1,22% to 1,50%, that of the Bund from 0,15% to 0,28%. The spread has risen from 107 to 122. There is great expectation for the speech that Mario Draghi will give in the market on the theme of the "future of the financial markets".
In the evening, the data on the trend of cars in Italy in the month of April will be on the calendar. In the USA, the trend of the Ism index will be announced, the most reliable pulse of the stars and stripes manufacturing activity. But the most awaited data of the week concerns the trend of employment (expected a jobless rate of 5%) and wages (+2,4% estimate) to be released next Friday: it will be the most probative test to evaluate the eventual slowdown in the economy and, consequently, the probability of a rate increase at the Fed meeting of 14-15 June.
WARREN BUFFETT DEFENDS HIS COCA-COLA: IT DOESN'T HURT
The traditional kermesse of Berkshire Hathaway's 40 members was held over the weekend, by now traditionally the culminating point of the US financial accounting season. For seven hours Warren Buffett answered questions. The wise man from Omaha, who will vote for Hillary Clinton, vigorously defended Coca-Cola (of which he has 9%) contesting the risks for diabetes and obesity deriving from the consumption of carbonated and sugary drinks. "It is a specious thesis – he said -, one chooses to distribute the calories as he sees fit".
FERRARI, MPS, FINMECCANICA AND INTESA ACCOUNTS COMING SOON
A new busy week begins for corporate accounts. The US quarterly campaign continues: Pfizer, Halliburton, Motorola, Time Warner are on the calendar. In Europe, the accounts of the big banks are the focus of attention: HSBC, BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Credit Suisse and UBS. In the first part of 2016, the Big Europeans lost an average of 28% of the stock market value.
In Italy, the quarterly reports of Ferrari and Piaggio (today), Finmeccanica and MontePaschi (Thursday), Atlantia and Banca Intesa (Friday) are scheduled during the week. The Tenaris assembly is also scheduled.
AT THE DEBUT OF TECHNOGYM, RAIN OF DIVIDENDS FROM SMALL
Wave of dividends from small and medium-sized companies in Piazza Affari. Today, Bologna Airport (0,17 euro), B&C Speakers (0,35 euro), Banca Profilo (0,006 euro), Beni Stabili (0,024 euro), Centrale del Latte Turin (0,06 euro), Cofide ( 0,014 euro), Maire Tecnimont (0,047 euro), MutuiOnLine (0,15 euro), Saes Getters (0,38 ordinary, 0,396626 savings), Save (5421 euro), Vittoria Assicurazioni (0,2 euro), Bio- On (€0,150919), Leone Film Group (€0,09), and Triboo Media (€0,1275). Tomorrow Technogym will make its debut in Piazza Affari: the stock of Nerio Alesandri's company was priced at the IPO at 3,5 euros, giving the company a valuation of 650 million euros, with a free float of 25% in the hands of the market.
INTESA PAYS CASH: SETEFI SALE TO ICBPI FOR 1,035 BILLION
Banca Intesa sold control of Setefi to Istituto Centrale delle Banche Popolari Italiane for 1,935 billion. Setefi Processing is Intesa Sanpaolo's Italian processing platform for Central-Eastern Europe and operates in nine countries, including Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Romania.
POPULAR VICENZA STOCK EXCHANGE, BPM READY FOR THE WEDDING
In the spotlight there will probably be another debut. Indeed, today the Italian Stock Exchange will decide on the admission of Banca Popolare di Vicenza to the Stock Exchange. A derogation from the free float rule will be necessary, much lower than the 25% envisaged by the regulations. But the share held by Atlante could be considered floating, judged on a par with a UCI (body for the collection of savings).
The Bank's IPO, placed at 0,10 euro per security, had, as expected, a less than exciting result: Atlante intervened for 1,38 billion euro, equal to 92% of the capital. Shareholders and the general public subscribed 2,57%, for a value of around 38 billion. Institutional investors booked 5,1%. Mediobanca stands out among these, with a request of 5%.
Another title in evidence is that of Banca Popolare di Milano. The meeting appointed the new supervisory board on Saturday: the new president is the economist Nicola Rossi, who thus became the new president of the CDS: "On the merger with Banco Popolare - he said after the appointment - the CDS must make a advisory opinion: the first part was made by the previous council, we will finish it. I will not anticipate the conclusions, and it is not a formal fact". In the meeting, the outgoing president Piero Giarda strongly contested the merger with Banco Popolare. "The nascent bank - he comments - certainly does not have the characteristics of the couple of the year".
FIRST STOCK EXCHANGE TEST FOR FCA-GOOGLE
First test on the market of the upcoming alliance between Fiat Chrysler and Google for the creation of the self-driving Google car. The agreement, which will be announced this week, comes after the negative outcome of the negotiations between the Mountain View giant and the two Detroit big names, Ford and GM. "They risked - commented Mark Fields, CEO of Ford - of ending up like the manufacturers of Android smartphones", or rather of being simple suppliers without brands and technological expertise. There is curiosity to understand what guarantees Sergio Marchionne will have managed to obtain. For now we only know that negotiations began at the CES in Las Vegas last January and that the chosen vehicle will be the Pacifica minivan. The stock suffered a 3,2% loss on Friday after the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch report cut the recommendation to Underperform from Neutral.
BUSINESS PLACE RECOVERED. BUT STILL LOSE 12,9%
Finally a positive performance for Piazza Affari. The FtseMib index, which lost 1,9% on Friday, rallied 2,6% over the month, narrowing its year-to-date loss to -12,9%. In Piazza Affari, the protagonists of the month of April were the banks: in particular Monte Paschi (+31%), Popolare Emilia (+17%) and Mediobanca (+11%). Banco Popolare was down (-6%).
Oil companies also performed well, in particular Eni (+8%) and Saipem (+21%). Finally, the brilliant increases of Mediaset (+13%) and StM (+11%) should be noted. Bad Telecom Italia (-10%).
THE OSCAR OF THE MONTH AT THE BRAZIL STOCK EXCHANGE
The EuroStoxx 50 index rose by 1,1% during the month. Paris +1,6%, Frankfurt +1,9%. In the USA both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 index are down, both -1,3%. Apple's decline weighed on the Nasdaq (-2,7%). Worth mentioning is the excellent performance of the Brazilian Stock Exchange: the Bovespa index, in the midst of the impeachment proceedings of President Djlma Rousseff, gained 6% during the month, which becomes +10% in euros thanks to the revaluation of the real.
