The Italian Stock Exchange falls, conditioned by negative estimates on growth coming from the EU Commission. Piazza Affari loses about 0,6%, just above the 19.400 mark. Frankfurt, Madrid and Paris are almost unchanged. Better London: +0,2%.
After the verdict in Brussels, the ten-year BTP weakens to 3,42% yield, from 3,33% yesterday. The spread is at 297 basis points, while it was 288 yesterday.
Growth in 2018, according to the EU, will stop in December at 1,1%, to recover to a weak 1,2% next year (1,3% in 2020), against a deficit of 3% ( against 2,4%). The upward revision of the structural deficit to 3% of GDP in 2019 and 3,5% in 2020 is heavy. The increase in the deficit and interest rates does not bring down the public debt, which, according to the Commission, is destined to remain at 131% . Among the reasons for the widening of the deficit: introduction of the basic income, pension reform, increase in public investments.
stable theeuro/dollar, around 1,143: the Fed board meeting closes tonight, but no announcements on rates are expected.
Back to moving instead the Petroleum, up to $72,8 a barrel, following the release of US crude inventories data. Strategic reserves increased for the seventh consecutive week. The cartel members, plus Russia, will consider a production cut at Sunday's meeting in Abu Dhabi. Saipem + 1,12% Eni -0,20%.
In the foreground, in Piazza Affari, the quarterly reports of some blue chips. The market punishes the accounts of Unicredit (-3%), which closes the third quarter with a net devaluation of the equity investment in the Turkish Yapi Kredi and an increase in provisions against US sanctions for operations with Iran. Adjusted profit for the period came in at €875m versus a consensus of €907, but fell to €29m after €850m of Yapi write-downs. In the first nine months of the year, profit rose to 3 billion euro (+4,7% year on year). CEO Jean Pierre Mustier aims to reduce the impact of Italian government bonds on Cet1 by around 35% by 2019. In Paris SocGen + 3%.
Fly instead Bpm bank (+8,5%), which closed the third quarter with 1,30 billion euros in total revenues, +22% year on year, slightly better than forecasts thanks to the trading result. Costs fall more than expected, to 677 million, operating profit flies to 626 million euros (+124% year on year).
Almost unchanged Generali (-0,17%): 1,077 billion euros of operating profit, an improvement from 884 million euros in the same period a year ago, but below consensus estimates (1,1 billion). Combined ratio at 92,8%, slightly worse than expected (92%). Slightly better than expected two indicators, the net result amounted to 526 million. General Bank + 0,8%.
Italian post +1,7%. The society increases net income by more than 100 million euros in the third quarter, at 321 million euros: +50% year on year. The consensus expected 285 million euros. Also due to the good result of the mail delivery area, operating profit rose by 39%, to 456 million euro, 10% above expectations.
It collapses on high volumes Tod’s (-11,2%, at 48,7 euros), because the relaunch is slow to arrive. Weak quarterly sales and forecasts were announced yesterday after markets closed. Berenberg, who cut the target price to 51 from 52 euros, confirming the "hold" rating, underlines that the group has closed the twenty-first consecutive quarter of comparable sales (-1,9% in the third quarter). Mediobanca Securities (neutral target cut to 49,5 euro) underlines that the recovery time will not be short. Ubs confirms "sell" and cuts the target to 40 from 44 euros. Morgan Stanley is "underweight".
Mediaset (-1,9%) works on the aggregation with the French TF1. in Frankfurt ProSiebenSat.1 it dropped by 15% and is the worst of the pan-European basket today, at a six-year low, after cutting the dividend and launching a warning on the outlook.
