Soft start of the financial week. Asian stocks rallied slightly on Friday's strong Wall Street performance.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei index rose by 0,4%. Third quarter GDP growth was revised up by 1,8%. The Korean Kospi and Sidney were also positive. Flat Chinese price lists, Hong Kong +0,2%. Yesterday in the former British colony at least 800 demonstrators out of a population of 7 million took to the streets in the first demonstration authorized since August. In recent months, 6 demonstrators have been arrested in 900 marches.
Weak oil this morning: Brent is trading at 64,21 dollars a barrel (-0,3%), despite the OPEC summit in Vienna having decided to cut the cartel's production higher than expected: 500 barrels less.
Flat currency markets. The euro dollar trades at 1,105, from +0,4% last week.
GERMANY, TENSION DOWN IN THE BUND
In Germany, the threat of a government crisis brought about by the new leadership of the social democrats, government partner of the CDU-CSU, which was reflected last week in a weakening of the Bund, which fell to -0,29%, has diminished. This morning the trade balance of Germany will be communicated and tomorrow at 11 the Zew index on the expectations of entrepreneurs and economists.
The elections in the United Kingdom and the US/China confrontation on tariffs which, barring an agreement, risk resulting in an increase, starting next Sunday, in the tariffs on 156 billion of imports from Beijing, represent the two most awaited appointments on the front geopolitical in a week that could set new records: the MSCI global index is just three points off its all-time high. To complicate the climb to the top, however, there will be the obstacle of impeachment: today the request to proceed against President Donald Trump will be formally presented to Congress.
JOB BOOM IN USA, LAGARDE'S FIRST TIME
The central banks, the Fed and the ECB in the first place, will be the great protagonists on the macroeconomic front. The last 2019 Federal Reserve board will close on Wednesday. It is obvious that the directorate, after the excellent data on the labor market (266 new jobs against 183 expected), will not move the interest rate lever. Interest is concentrated on the new economic projections of the FOMC as well as on inflation and consumption trends.
No less awaited is the directorate of the ECB on Thursday, the first led by Christine Lagarde. In the spotlight above all the press conference of the new president to evaluate the differences in style and substance with Mario Draghi.
But the British elections will also be held on Thursday: the leaders of the various countries, meeting in Brussels, will be able to deal live with the Brexit tear: keep an eye on the trend of the euro/sterling cross.
BRAZIL AND Türkiye TOWARDS CUTTING RATES
The summits of other central banks are expected: Turkey and Brazil appear to be on the way to new cuts to avert recession. The Carioca bank will move despite Washington's accusations in Brasilia (and Argentina) that the exchange rate is too weak. In reality, the fragility of currencies is not a commercial weapon, but rather the index of the troubles of indebted countries. In Buenos Aires, the new minister of the economy has been appointed: it is Martin Guzman, who is very critical of the IMF.
Also meeting are the central banks of Russia (cuts in sight) and Switzerland, as usual solid as a rock.
BOT AUCTION, STILL DISPUTES ABOUT THE MONTH
On the Italian front, attention is dominated by the Budget law: today the government and the majority should present new amendments to the text which will also implement the agreement on postponement of entry into force for sugar and plastic tax. The theme of the Mes remains at the top of the agenda.
Week of auctions for the Treasury: on Wednesday it will be the turn of the offer of 6 billion BOTs.
PEIGEOT LIQUIDS CHINESE IN FCA RATES
On the move Fca. There are obstacles, especially the taxman, on the road to the merger between Fiat Chrysler and Peugeot, but we are moving forward. In the Peugeot house, the repurchase of part of the stake held by the Chinese Dongfeng is expected during the week, today at 12% in the French house. The stake must fall below 5% of the new company to avoid the veto on the presence of Chinese capital in Jeep. The signing of the renewal of the contract between FCA and the UAW union is also expected this week.
The tug of war between Berlusconi and Bolloré continues. The judge of the Court of Milan reserved the right to decide on the request for precautionary suspension made by Vivendi on the pan-European reorganization project of the Italian group.
