Prudence reigns on the financial markets, waiting to decipher the next moves of the central banks. A Fed report has cooled expectations on Washington's next moves: the rate cut at the end of July, as anticipated by the Wall Street Journal, will be only 0,25%, less than what the markets had hoped for. Softer forecasts for the ECB. Der Spiegel is highly likely to announce Thursday that the European Central Bank will resume securities purchases to counter the deterioration of the economy. The picture is complicated by tensions on the oil front: in addition to the crisis between Iran and the United Kingdom over the seizure of a British tanker in the Gulf, there is a production blackout in Libya after the attack by an anti-government militia.
RECORD DEBUT OF THE NEW NASDAQ IN CHINA: +520%
Asian stock exchanges thus open downwards. Hong Kong slows down (-0,9%), shaken yesterday by a new gigantic wave of protests.
The Chinese markets are down by more than 1%. The decline in the Csi 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen is partly linked to the launch of the "Star Market", the new Nasdaq-model stock exchange that will host the most innovative tech stocks: the new list starts with 140 freshmen who on the day of debut they achieved gains of between 120 and 520 per cent.
Tokyo is also holding back (-0,3%); Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's party prevailed in Sunday's elections, but did not reach the necessary quorum for changes to the constitution. Beer giant Asahi loses 6,8% after buying Australian brewer Carlton for $11,3 billion.
LIBYA AND IRAN: THE BRENT TAKES FLIGHT
Oil rises: Brent at 63,35 dollars a barrel (+1,6%). Gold trades at $1.430 an ounce. The euro/dollar opens on Friday's levels of 1,123.
THE MARKETS AWAIT DRAGHI'S WORDS: QE 2 IN VIEW
Futures on European stock exchanges anticipate a start just above parity. The attention of the European markets is focused on waiting for Mario Draghi's words. On Thursday 25, for the penultimate time, the financial markets will hang on the lips of the Italian banker, who will announce the decisions of the European Central Bank, this time more than ever expected. Among the measures being studied by the directorate there is undoubtedly a new cut in the remuneration of deposits with the institute (from -0,40 to -0,50%) together with other more robust interventions, including the rate cut (ten points). But also the announcement of the resumption of securities purchases, a QE bis with the endorsement of Christine Lagarde, next president of the Bank.
FINAL SPRINT TO LONDON: STERLING UNDER FIRE
Politics in the foreground both in Europe and in the USA. The UK showdown is approaching. Tomorrow the successor to Theresa May at the helm of the Conservative Party and the Government will be chosen: former Foreign Minister Boris Johnson is favored over Jeremy Hunt. But the appointment could open a government crisis, because a part of the Tories is not willing to follow Johnson on the path of a hard Brexit. Against the "no-deal" option, the British Chancellor of the Exchequer will resign. Justice Secretary David Gauke will also resign.
In two months the pound has lost 6,5%.
Towards a solution the Spanish political crisis. The negotiations on the government seem to have unblocked, after 80 days of negotiations and the resignation by Pablo Iglesias, leader of Podemos, from being part of the executive to allow the birth of a government formed by his party and the socialists led by Pedro Sánchez . Parliament's vote of confidence in Pedro Sánchez will take place tomorrow.
The Italian political horizon is much more contrasted: the points of friction between the components of the government are multiplying, which already on Friday caused a sharp slowdown in Piazza Affari (-2,5% during the week) and in government bonds, with a rebound in the spread of 10 points at 195. On Friday the month-end auctions start with the offer of Ctz and Btpei.
THE ACCOUNTS OF SAIPEM, ENI AND FINCANTIERI ARE COMING SOON
The Piazza Affari calendar provides today for the detachment of the balance of the Enel coupon (0,14 euro, yield of 2,2%).
During the week, the quarterly meetings of the oil companies will be held: Saipem on Thursday and Eni on Friday.
Also on the agenda are advice on the quarterly reports of Moncler and Fincantieri (Wednesday). Thursday will be the turn of Stm and Maire Tecnimont.
Among the European quarterly reports Deutsche Bank (Wednesday) and Vodafone (Friday).
IN WALL STREET THE NUMBERS ARE 144 CORPORATION
On Wall Street there will be as many as 144 companies in the S&P 500 basket that will give the numbers during the week. Among these, Alphabet (formerly Google) deserves particular attention after the slowdown in the first quarter and Amazon: e-commerce slows down, but Jeff Bezos' creature advances in the cloud and in advertising. He also keeps an eye on Facebook, Twitter, Boeing, Caterpillar, Tesla, Ford, Harley-Davidson, Coca-Cola, UPS and Visa accounts.
On the macro front, the update of the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook should be noted on Tuesday.
In the USA, the most relevant data concerns the trend of GDP in the second quarter: an increase of 1,3% is expected, with a clear slowdown compared to the months of the beginning of the year (+3%).
