The winds of peace over Korea, together with the US Treasury secretary's openings on a possible agreement between the US and Beijing on tariffs, have only partially eased tensions on the markets, grappling with signs of a slowdown in the global economy, without another one of the topics of the next directorate of the European Central Bank, the key appointment of a week full of corporate events.
No less important is the evolution of oil prices, closely linked to the trend of the dollar and US rates. "A further 5 dollar increase in the price of crude oil - wrote Alan Ruskin of Deutsche Bank this morning - could push the US 3-year bond above the psychological threshold of XNUMX%", thus rekindling the worries of the stock markets: in February the surge in bonds triggered the stock market correction. This explains the prudence of the price lists at the start of the session.
THE DOLLAR RISES, BUT TOKYO HOLDS DOWN
This morning, the yield on US T Bonds stood at 2,97%, in line with the values at the end of Friday, the highest since January 2014.
Oil prices are also still at record levels: Brent crude trades little at only 74 dollars, despite the sharp increase in the production of US shale oil, over 10,5 million barrels per day. The warning to Donald Trump's producers did not have much effect. Moreover, the sanctions against Russia, Iran and Venezuela risk significantly reducing the supply. JP Morgan advised clients to “stay long” on crude oil this morning.
The Japanese Stock Exchange is down by 0,1%, despite the yen falling to the lows of the last two and a half months against the dollar, at 107,8.
In the world of raw materials, wheat continues to rise, +10% since the beginning of the year, coffee rebounds (-8% since the beginning of the year). Sugar quotations remain depressed (-23% since the beginning of the year).
China's stock exchanges show little movement: CSI 300 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges unchanged. In Asia, Hong Kong -0,2%, Taiwan -0,7%, South Korea -0,2% and India -0,2%.
ECB: DRAGHI ASKS FOR "PATIENCE" ON RATES
Mario Draghi certainly does not mind the strengthening of the dollar, which rose to 1,227 against the euro a few days after the ECB directorate which will have to pronounce on the timing of the closure of the securities purchase program by the Frankfurt institute. Draghi stressed last Friday that the situation requires "patience, prudence and perseverance".
On the contrary, Jens Weidmann reiterated on Friday that the premises are in place to move towards the closure of Qe. Draghi will also participate in Friday's Eurogroup summit in Sofia (Bulgaria), which will bring together eurozone economy and finance ministers engaged in the difficult exercise of redistributing EU resources after Brexit.
Markit's PMI indices on the eurozone will be released today.
THE UNICREDIT AND LUXOTTICA COUPON IS DETACHED
But, beyond the Frankfurt meeting, the calendar also includes a large number of corporate events starting from Piazza Affari.
Dividends, first of all. The incidence on the Ftse Mib index at the opening will be equal to 0,36%. There will be seven big names of the Ftse Mib and as many listed on the other stock exchanges of Piazza Affari to inaugurate the dividend season on Monday which, on its first day, will bring investors over two billion euros in coupons.
The most important check will be the one issued by Unicredit, approximately 715 million euros, which will pay 32 cents per share (approximately 1,78% of the gross yield at current prices) followed by the one for almost 500 million euros distributed by Luxottica (1,01 1,9 euro and a gross yield of XNUMX%).
FERRARI AND CNH ALSO ON THE LIST. FINECO (2,9%) YIELDS MORE
In terms of returns, Finecobank is in the lead (about 2,9%). The other detachments in the main basket concern Ferrari, Recordati, Cnh Industrial and Prysmian. In the rest of the price list, pay particular attention to Banca Mediolanum, which will detach the balance of 20 cents of a total dividend of 40 cents (for a total return of 5,6%) but also to the 1 euro coupon of De Longhi, Banca Ifis and Autostrade Southerners.
Board meetings on the quarterly accounts of Banca Generali, Sogefi and Saipem are also scheduled (announcement to the market before the start of tomorrow's session). The boards of Bioera, Boero Bartolomeo and Ki Group also meet to approve the accounts at the end of 2017.
SHAREHOLDERS' MEETINGS, CAMPARI IN THE WEEK TODAY ENI AND FCA
The calendar also includes the budget meeting of Campari, Unipol Sai, Caltagirone Editore, Diasorin, Ei Towers, Erg, Fiera Milano, Interpump, Pierrel, Poligrafici Editoriale, RaiWay, Snaitech.
Among others, the members of Digital Magics and Equita gather in Aim. Among the quarterly reports of the week, Mediaset (Tuesday), Stm (Wednesday) Fiat Chysler and Tenaris (Thursday) Eni and Cnh Industrial (Friday) stand out.
TREASURY AUCTIONS UNDERWAY. ON 14 MAY THE BTP ITALIA
Auction week for the Treasury. We start on Tuesday with the Cts, Wednesday it's the turn of the Bots. The highlight, as usual, will be the offer of medium-term securities, which will coincide with the ECB directorate.
The new issue of the BTP Italia has been announced for May 14th. Sii will return to the 8-year term, to ensure positive interest for subscribers. The new head of public debt, Davide Iacovoni said that the launch of a twenty-year inflation-indexed BTP but also the issue of a bond in dollars is "in the category of hypotheses".
TELECOM ITALIA, TOMORROW THE SHOW OF ACCOUNTS
The most awaited corporate appointment falls tomorrow when the Telecom Italia shareholders' meeting will be held, the last (perhaps) act of the clash between Vivendi and the shareholders grouped in front of the Elliott fund. At stake is the appointment of the new board of directors. From a stock market point of view, the stock is one step away from the psychological barrier of 0,90 euro which has never been regained since May 17, 2017.
TODAY UBS'S QUARTERLY ACCOUNTS FOR 180 S&P STOCKS
No less important are the company appointments in the rest of Europe. We begin today with the UBS shareholders' meeting, tomorrow it's the turn of Banco de Santander and Volvo, Wednesday at Credit Suisse. Thursday the expected relay at the top of the German giants, Volkswagen and Deutsche Bank. It closes on Friday with Sanofi and Royal Bank of Scotland.
More than 180 companies that make up the Standard & Poor's 500 basket will announce their first quarter results in the coming days. These include the big names in technology (Amazon, Facebook, Google and Microsoft), but also most of the companies most exposed to the trade war with China: Halliburton (today), 3M and Texas Instruments (tomorrow), Boeing (Wednesday), Intel (Thursday). The week will close with the accounts of Chevron and Exxon.
