Gold is the the only real winner in the current bitter trade war unleashed by Trump. Overnight it reached a new record level and is preparing to record its biggest quarterly gain in more than 38 years in the wake of the Investor concerns that with a bang duties in the end it will be the global economy to suffer from it and that US in particular that could also see a recession.
The attraction of bullion has led to thespot gold to register another 1,1% increase this morning to $3.116,82 an ounce, after having touched a record high of $3.128,06 shortly before. U.S. gold futures rose 1,1% to $3.148,00.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against political and economic uncertainties, rose over 18% this quarter, posting its highest quarterly gain since September 1986. Earlier this month, it surpassed the psychological threshold of 3.000 dollars an ounce. They also moved higher silver spot, up 0,6% to $34,32 an ounce, the Platinum, up 1,1% to $994,60 and the palladium, up 0,9% to $980,11.
What's Driving the Gold Rally
Supporting the rally, in addition to the refuge from gloomy economic horizons, are also bets on interest rate cut, central bank purchases , demand for exchange-traded funds (ETFs), while the index of the dollar, which is coming close to its worst start to the year since global crisis of 2008, fell 0,2%, making dollar-denominated gold less expensive for buyers holding other currencies.
“Market anxiety levels have increased ahead of the mutual announcements of U.S. tariffs, which keeps gold in high demand as a defensive tool,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. “If this week’s tariff announcements aren’t as severe as feared, gold prices could start to reverse course, as profit-taking from highs could kick in.”
Trump should announce reciprocal tariffs on April 2, while the auto tariffs will take effect on April 3. On Sunday, Trump said he was “very angry” with Russian President Vladimir Putin and that he would impose secondary rates 25%-50% to buyers of Petroleum Russian if he felt that Moscow was blocking his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
Gold Forecasts Continue to Rise: Now Seen Above $3.300 Within the Year
For most analysts, gold has not yet finished its run and numerous banks have increased their forecasts.
Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and UBS have all raised their price targets for the yellow metal this month, with Goldman which predicts gold will reach $3.300 an ounce by the end of the year, up from $3.100. Bofa forecasts gold to trade at $3.063 in 2025 and $3.350 in 2026, up from its previous forecasts of $2.750 for 2025 and $2.625 for 2026.
