Yesterday was a day full of twists and turns, confirming that the picture is now in motion. Let's start from the bottom. Yesterday evening, with closed European lists, oil prices soared. At the Nymex in November the contract recorded an increase of 2,5 dollars to 48,53 dollars (almost 6% more), the largest increase since last April.
The reason? Surprisingly, the cartel has reached an agreement, albeit temporary: daily production is now down to 32,5 million barrels from the current 33,24 million. The definitive ceiling will be set at the November summit in Vienna. Only then will agreements be sought with non-OPEC producers, starting with Russia. The confirmation of the great peace comes from the Iranian agency Shana: "Today - reads the declaration of the oil minister Bijan Zanganeh - OPEC has achieved a historic result: after two and a half years, the organization is able to control the markets ”.
TAKE UPWALL STREET AND ASIA UPWARD
The upswing in oil gave a boost to the stock exchanges. Asian lists advanced this morning: Tokyo rose by 1,7%, Sydney +0,9%. Chinese markets are also on the rise. The jump in crude oil allowed Wall Street to reverse the already weak trend of the session: the Dow Jones closed with a rise of 0,61%, the S&P 500 index rose by 0,53%. Nasdaq +0,24%, barely touched by the crude oil boom.
The Energy sector recorded an increase of 4%. Chevron is up 3,20%, Exxon up 4,40%. Caterpillar is also in evidence (+3,56%): the oil companies are major customers of the heavy vehicle giant.
Finally, thanks to oil, a strong upward start is looming this morning for European oil stocks: futures signal an upward start of one percentage point. Yesterday, before the agreement, Piazza Affari Eni rose by half a point to 12,37 euros, reducing gains in the final, with an increase of 0,5% to 12,37 euros.
Saipem -0,3%. Kepler Cheuvreux has reduced the target price on the share from 0,45 to 0,42 euro, a level which is still higher than the current Stock Exchange prices. The rating is confirmed at hold. Tenaris +1,3%.
Apart from the Opec effect to be reported yesterday to Wall Street Nike: -3,78% after the quarterly. Gross margin fell to 45,5% of revenues, -200 basis points over the same period last year, versus an expectation of 46,6%. Orders +7%, a bit below expectations, due to the weak result from North America.
Blackberry rose 4% to $8,2. The company has announced that it will no longer produce smartphones and will focus on the software business.
DRAGHI DEFENDS QE AT THE BUNDESTAG. YELLEN: RATES WILL GO UP
Delicate meeting today for the Central Bank of Mexico, grappling with the electoral tensions of the powerful neighbor to the North. The peso recovered 2,3% following the outcome of the first debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. But since the beginning of the year, under the nightmare of the "wall" invoked by the Republican candidate, the Mexican currency has lost 11%.
Speaking of central banks, before the news from OPEC yesterday was dominated by speeches by the two most important central bankers on the planet, Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen, both grappling with bitter protests from political hawks. Draghi reiterated in Berlin, in a closed meeting of the Bundestag, the benefits of the low interest rate policy which allowed the German Treasury to save 2015 billion in 28 alone.
And about the impact of falling interest rates on savings, he added: "If we want savers to benefit from higher interest rates in the future, we will need to create investment opportunities to put those savings to productive use." That is: dear Germany, invest more and protest less.
Janet Yellen's congressional hearing was even hotter: the Republicans, as Donald Trump had done in the TV debate, attacked the Fed, calling it a "den of Democrats". The suspicion that Lael Brainard, the Fed member closest to the president, seems destined to play a leading role in any Clinton administration lends substance to the allegations.
Beyond the political aspect, the president went so far as to say that "the majority of the members of the Fed's monetary committee believe a rate hike in December is probable". The confirmation came from the interventions of four members of the executive committee of the Federal Reserve: James Ballard of the Saint Louis Fed, Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed, Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed and Esther George of the Kansas City Fed. Apart from Evans, others disagreed with Janet Yellen's extreme caution on interest rates.
THE PLUS SIGN RETURNS TO THE STOCK EXCHANGE, TODAY THE BTP AUCTION
After three days of decline, the plus sign returned yesterday in the European stock exchanges. Milan which, after maintaining a sustained pace for the entire session, decelerated in the final closing in any case at 16.222 points, up by 0,5%. Paris (+0,7%), Frankfurt (+0,7%) and London (+0,5%) also performed well.
The Treasury offers today between 7 and 8,5 billion Btp at 5 and 10 years, as well as Ccteu. On the eve, the Btp/Bund spread returned to 133 basis points. The new five-year ended the session on the Mts gray market at a rate of around 0,315% from 0,19% at the end of August. The ten-year December 2026 pays 1,24% (1,14%).
DEUTSCHE BANK REBOUNCES, NEW NO TO STATE AID
Deutsche Bank recovered yesterday in Frankfurt (+2%), rebounding from the all-time low marked yesterday. CEO John Cryan ruled out a possible capital increase and denied reports that the German Bank had asked for state aid to handle the US's request for a 14 billion dollar fine.
The German Finance Ministry said the government is not preparing any bailout plan, officially denying the rumors of the weekly Die Zeit. The topic was not even touched upon by Mario Draghi in his speech behind closed doors to the German Parliament.
The president of the EBA, Andrea Enria, speaking at an event of the Wall Street Journal in London, warned that "Europe must take Japan's lesson and tackle the problem of its zombie banks" as quickly as possible without being lenient on capital requirements.
Some European banks have the same characteristics as some Japanese institutions of the recent past, starting with too many doubtful loans in the portfolio. "I hope - he concluded - that we will not have in common even the time it took to put them right".
THE UNICREDIT PLAN ON DECEMBER 13, AFTER THE REFERENDUM
Day of recovery also for Italian banks. Particularly Unicredit is advancing (+1,5%). With a press release, the institute announced that it will present the outcome of the strategic review in London on 13 December, following the outcome of the referendum. According to the latest rumors, the new CEO Jean-Pierre Mustier aims to strengthen assets by 15/16 billion (including sales and equity shares) before proceeding with a capital increase which, at that point, could be limited to 5/ 6 billion.
Banco Popolare (+1,3%) and Bpm (+1,6%) are also on positive ground. Bper scores an increase of 2,2%. Only Intesa (-0,2%) and Monte Paschi (-0,4%) fell slightly. Insurance companies recover: Generali +0,1%, Unipol +3,1% and UnipolSai +1,8%.
THE BRIDGE OVER THE STRAIT INFLAMES IMPREGILO
Construction stocks rose sharply after Prime Minister Renzi relaunched the idea of a bridge over the Strait of Messina: Buzzi +3,2%, Trevi +4,4%, Cementir +2,8%. Best of all was Salini Impregilo (+6,7%), yesterday's best stock in Piazza Affari. The previous contract with the company for the construction of the bridge over the Strait (for a value of approximately 3,8 billion) was unilaterally canceled by the government. The consortium led by Salini with a 42% stake has requested compensation of around 800 million euros for "breach of contract".
LEONARDO STUDYING THE NEW DRONE, A HISTORICAL RECORD FOR CAMPARI
Solid earnings in the industrial sector: StM +1,2%, Exor +1,1%, Fiat Chrysler +0,9%. Cnh unchanged, confirmed in Goldman Sachs' conviction buy list (but target reduced from 10 to 9 euros). In evidence Leanardo (+1,30): the former Finmeccanica has entered into a contract with Airbus and Dassault Aviation for the definition study of the new European drone.
Telecom Italia advances by 2%. Mediobanca Securities confirmed the outperform recommendation and the target price at 1,27 euro. Mediaset +2,2%.
In luxury, Yoox stood out (+1,6%). Campari +1,4% to 10,09 euros after setting a new all-time high of 10,16 euros. The performance since the beginning of the year amounts to +27%
SMALL CAP: STILL IN DECLINE LANDI RENZO AND DANIELI
Slight progress Erg (+0,80%). Banca Akros has started hedging with accumulated recommendations and a target price of 11,4 euros. Still in the red instead Landi Renzo (-2,29%): after the publication of the accounts it received a cut on the target price (by 29% to 0,35 euro, hold) by Equita Sim and one by Banca Akros (a 0,43 from 0,5 euro, reduced). Danieli is also bad (-1,94%): Kepler Cheuvreux has lowered the recommendation from buy to reduce, with the target price going from 20,5 to 16,5.
