Day X has arrived: in 2017 of the great electoral appointments in Europe, today the first big game is played. Waiting for French presidential elections, scheduled in just over a month, it's up to Holland to renew its parliamentary majority, through a round that promises to be quite complicated: on the wave of 2016 with Brexit and Donald Trump's victory in the US, the favorite seems to be the Eurosceptic and Islamophobe Geert Wilders.
However, the nightmare of a government led by the leader of the PVV is far enough away, given that the Dutch proportional electoral law has always implied the formation of composite government majorities, and in this round, according to polls, at least six or seven parties will be able to win even more than 10% of the votes. The scenario is therefore quite uncertain and Wilders, even if he wins a relative majority (at the moment there is talk of 22 seats out of 150), could hardly gather the support of other forces around him.
Wilders is one of the favorites, however: his program aims to move away from Europe and to ban mosques from the country, in which migrants would no longer be welcomed. In the running there is also the Vvd, the conservative party of current premier Mark Rutte, whose acclaim is close to that of Wilders' training. Then there are the PvdA, the Labor formation currently allied in parliament with the Vvd; the Sp, the socialist party; and the Christian Democratic Board formation. The Greens, who would have a consensus close to 20%, and the progressive and pro-European formation D66, given at 17%, are up sharply compared to the last votes.
An eventual Wilders victory it would therefore be a worrying signal from a political point of view, but concretely the most probable hypothesis is the formation of a centrist government alliance, which brings together three or four forces in the field, with the outgoing majority party which should still be the first, with 24 seats. However, Wilders' message regained momentum after the diplomatic crisis with Turkey following the Hague's decision to prevent the Turkish Foreign Minister's visit to the Netherlands. Wilders took immediate advantage of the situation, using Turkey as an example of a Muslim country that was dangerous, unstable and moved by a deep hatred of Europe.
The elections in the Netherlands are, as mentioned, the first of three crucial elections for Europe: in fact, soon it will be the turn of France (April 23 for the first round, May 7 for the second) and to Germany (in September).
