OECD: emerging countries will support the global economy

If the GDP of Euroland countries grows by 0,2% in 2011, the Chinese giant will score +9,3%. It is necessary to "urgently" implement policies capable of stimulating growth in the euro area: the greatest risk is a global slowdown. Padoan: "We need to make more use of the resources of the ECB and the state-saving fund".

The numbers speak for themselves. In the next two years it will be the emerging countries that will pull the bandwagon of the world economy. According to data published today by the OECD in the latest Economic Outlook, i 34 member countries of the organization for economic cooperation and development will grow by 1,9% this year and 1,6% in 2012. A recovery will only begin to be glimpsed in 2013, when the GDP of the 34 countries will register a +2,3%.

The photograph taken by the OECD shows a world divided in two: on the one hand the countries that are growing, on the other those that are stopping or even going backwards. Among those who do not advance we find the the euro area (and therefore theItaly), which will see an increase of 1,6% of the GDP in 2011 and 0,2% in 2012 and only in 2013 will it grow over 1%, the Japan, which this year will contract by 0,3% but should already mark a +2% next year and the United States (+2% in 2012 and +2,5% in 2013).

On the opposite side, however, the China, which will fly at a rate of 9,3% this year and 2012% in 8,5. Among the OECD countries the gold medal goes to Chile which will grow by 4% in 2012 and by 4,7% in 2013, but also the South Korea (+3,8% in 2012 and +4,3% in 2013), the Mexico (3,3% and 3,6%) and the Turkey (3% and 4,5%) are no different.

“To eliminate the risk of contagion in the euro area, a substantial increase in the capacities in the hands of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and increased use of resources of the European Central Bank“said the OECD chief economist, Pier Carlo Padoan. “We are concerned that politicians fail to see the urgency of taking decisive action against the real and growing risks to the global economy,” she added.

For the countries most at risk, the OECD identifies several priority to be implemented urgently: the stabilization of the financial system, the increase of a social safety net, the implementation of structural reforms to stimulate employment and growth and a greater easing of monetary policies.

See the Economic Outlook page on the OECD website