The real estate market is still in full recession, but at the end of the tunnel, Nomisma promises, the light can be seen. “The second wave of recession that began in 2011 seems to have come to an end – reads a note – even if significant improvements are not forecast for 2014, starting from 2015 a start of recovery is considered plausible which should have a greater impetus in the segment non-residential versus residential". In the survey of the Observatory on the Real Estate Market on the 13 large cities, updated to November 2013, it is reported that negative judgments by real estate operators still prevail for the next 6 months; as far as values are concerned, the sentiment is even more pessimistic with respect to the quantities traded, the forecast balance for which is increasing compared to the last six months.
Basically 2013 is still in a heavy recession, but, this is the good thing, the descent loses intensity as the months go by and then the sign should become positive. “The current year – claims Nomisma – should close with a number of sales in the order of 407 thousand units, which corresponds to an annual variation of -8,3%. Over the next two years, transactions should increase at a rate of more than 9% per annum, while still remaining below 500 units.
However, this scenario assumes a continuation of the adjustment in property prices: the repricing, which began late with respect to the fall in sales, will continue also in the next two years, albeit with a gradually decreasing intensity. The downward adjustment of real estate values will be significant in 2014 in all sectors, it will be more contained in 2015 (with decreases of less than 2 percentage points), while it will be necessary to wait for 2016 to return to having positive signs”.
Sales decrease, but the collapse is not comparable to that of last year (-25,8%) Things are a little better in the big cities (-5,6%) and a progressive exhaustion of the strong push can be estimated recession and a gradual stabilization of the market, albeit on quantities reduced by 40-50% compared to the pre-crisis period.
However, many elements that characterize the recession are easing: the average sales times of used homes have stabilized (8,4 months on average), while those relating to offices and shops have lengthened by just 10 days, reaching respectively 10,8, 10,1 and XNUMX months after a period characterized by progressive lengthening.
In the last six months there was an alignment of the discount with respect to that practiced in the first half of the year for homes and offices, while the discount for shops increased. In the residential market, 16,5% (used homes) and 11,5% (new homes) were reached on average, 17,7% for offices and 17,4% for shops.
Prices, on the other hand, recorded a variation of -2% for new homes, -2,2% for used ones, -2,3% for offices and -1,9% for shops in the second half of the year.
Turning to the corporate market, Nomisma points out that Italy is showing timid signs of recovery: the incidence on continental investments went from 1,4% in 2012 to 2,3% in 2013. At the end of 2013, the volume of institutional real estate transactions should reach 3,3 billion euros, which represents just under double the investments made last year. The share of foreign investments is growing, reaching 73% of the market.
Positive signals come from the mortgage front. "The dynamics of loans for home purchases grow on an annual basis by 2,8% - writes Nomisma - and are the only component of credit to households in positive territory". We see “some signs that may indicate that in 2014 there will be an end to the contraction in disbursements and the start of a slow recovery process. The first positive element derives from the perceptions of the banks themselves, which signal for the last quarter of 2013 the start of a less restrictive credit offer trend against a perceived slightly growing demand”.
