Su FIRSTonline we wrote about it time ago: the present and the future of the broadcast world in Italy and in Europe it is full of threatening clouds, starting from when we glimpsed the DTT crisis with the application of the community directives on 700 Mhz and theadvent of 5G. On the one hand, the consolidated tendency to view audiovisual contents in streaming and, on the other hand, closely related, the changing qualitative and quantitative composition of the various audiences connected to the network rather than connected to a satellite or digital terrestrial antenna could cause real corporate earthquakes , productive and organizational between the various operators.
The latest alarm bell has been sounded in recent days with the publication of a report by analysts Banks of america Merrill Lynch where we read, in no uncertain terms, that the speed of business thrust and development of new operators on the broadband front is inversely proportional to that on the broadcast front. The study claims that within the next 5 years the audience of traditional televisions could be reduced by more than a fifth and the subjects most interested in this change are the so-called "digital natives", i.e. all those who grew up in the Web era. the drivers of change and they are still the preferred target of advertisers who, not surprisingly, have for some time now been diverting significant budgets from traditional broadcasters to new distribution platforms for increasingly conceived, designed and manufactured products for this "new" audience .
The theme of the "Alpha generation" as defined by the social analyst Mark McCrindle, referring to those born after 2010, it exactly defines the watershed of the paradigms for defining new content, distribution platforms and corporate and institutional structures.
A conventional expiry date for the break down has been set for 2025. By that time, as he stated Carolyn Mccall, CEO ITV, the main British private operator, the tipping point could occur with respect to the possibility of reassembling the unstoppable rise of the great giants of online streaming: Netflix, Amazon, Google, Disney. It is no coincidence that since last year, again in the United Kingdom, as we have always written on FirstOnLine, BBC with Channel 4 and ITV itself, are trying very hard to join forces to propose a common platform capable of containing the constant bleeding of viewers from their networks. The time factor on the one hand and the objective difficulties of linking the different strategies of private and public operators make the battlefield particularly bloody. The English experiment, according to what the newspaper recently reported The Guardian, proceeds with great difficulty and for the moment there are no definite agreements.
Again according to Merrill Lynch, the revenues of the free-to-air generalist commercial networks throughout Europe are progressively decreasing by 3% per annum, while those of the streaming operators are on the contrary growing. Public utility operators fare no better: according to what was recently published by the EBU (European Broadcasting Union), the funds allocated to support and develop the broadcasters controlled by the various states are progressively decreasing. It should be noted that, in the European ranking, the one who fares the worst is Rai which for some years has seen its budget constantly reduced, both in terms of license fees and in terms of advertising revenues in the face of a mass of commitments increasingly required onerous and demanding.
It should be recalled that Rai has also been deprived of the so-called "extra revenue" due for the payment of the license fee recovered with the fight against tax evasion for the current financial year. The presentation of the guidelines, which took place last week, of the new business plan envisaged by the recent Service Contract between the Public Service and the MISE, which expires on 7 March. According to what was announced by Viale Mazzini, the plan should focus on a close connection between content and the Web where "... the networks become interpreters of consumers' needs by focusing on increasingly tailor-made schedules" and "the product is put at the center with the definition of specific content directions focused on gender innovation and multi-usability”.
A first analysis of the foregoing leads to highlight once again a strategic planning deficit important: how is it possible to face a prospective crisis of such magnitude as the one we are talking about by transferring responsibility for interpreting the market and the consequent proposition of new contents on the one hand without assuming, on the other hand, solid and concrete foundations economics to rely on. The generic declarations of drawing on "the optimization of costs - without any employment contraction - but through less overlapping of schedules, the reduction of inefficiencies, the review of the needs of the information sector which remain crucial for Rai" do not seem sufficient" in the awareness that the Requested and anticipated commitments go far beyond management improvements on the expenditure side. It is enough to recall what is necessary to implement the new channels (in English and institutional) as well as the technological adjustments in anticipation of the obligation to cover 100% of the national territory to detect what the difficulties could be.
But the real issue is that the industrial plan, together with the editorial plan of which no traces are known, should exactly represent the development path, the direction of travel of a public service that could and should face a radical revision of its rationale "social". The question that is often asked is exactly what its nature, its mission should be, remodeled and updated in the light of a social, cultural and institutional framework that is not and will never be the same as when Rai was born and raised. The scenario described by Merrill Lynch analysts has been described as apocalyptic and irreversible. On the apocalypse, let's make exorcisms, perhaps something can be done on the irreversible.
