Start of the week resigned for Asian stock exchanges. The Chinese markets are missing, which will only reopen tomorrow. Hong Kong is also closed, paralyzed yesterday by the clashes that paralyzed the former British colony. Tokyo opens the week on a low note (-0,2%), held back by purchases of the yen, the refuge currency of Asia. The Korean Kospi rose slightly (+0,1%). The general caution was confirmed by the sales on futures of the S&P index (-0,44%), despite the good closure of Wall Street on Friday.
CHINA ASKS FOR GRACE FOR HUAWEI
The duties issue is once again at the center of the attention (and concern) of the markets. Once the celebrations for the anniversary of the birth of the People's Republic are over, the Chinese delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Liu He will return to Washington on Thursday, perhaps in time to defuse the threat of tariffs on goods from Beijing (250 billion) which should start on the day 12. Promises don't sound good. Bloomberg reports that the Chinese delegation arrives at the discussion table with the request to limit the negotiation to some specific areas. There shouldn't be a willingness to widen the field and talk about what matters most to the United States: the sanctions to be applied in the event of non-compliance with the agreements made. China would also like a preventive cancellation of the measures taken on Huawei.
GOLD RISES, PUTIN GOES TO ARABIA
Other defensive signals contribute to confirming the caution.
Gold rises to 1.506,30 dollars an ounce, while oil slows down: 58.13 dollars a barrel for Brent (-0,4%) on the day of Vladimir Putin's first visit to Saudi Arabia.
The off shore dollar-yuan exchange rate, considered as an insurance policy, to be collected in the event of a new breakdown in trade negotiations, appreciated at 7,13, after two days of decline.
The dollar, reassured by the latest macroeconomic data, crushed the Australian dollar and rose against the Indonesian rupiah, the South African rand and the Malaysian ringgit.
However, the rebound of the United States currency against the currencies of emerging countries is not accompanied by a rise in market rates: the 1,52-year Treasury Note, with a yield of XNUMX%, remains close to the lows of the last four weeks waiting for rate news.
The euro dollar was stable at 1,098: for now the tough confrontation on the possible impeachment of Donald Trump against which other "deep throats" rose up over the weekend does not matter.
This too will mark the week that includes several important appointments. Today the voice of David Malpass, the president of the World Bank, will be heard. Tomorrow, however, will be the debut of the new director general of the IMF, the Bulgarian Kristalina Georgeva, who replaced Christine Lagarde.
THE FED INTRODUCES NEW LIQUIDITY. NEW CUTS IN SIGHT
It will be up to them to voice concerns about the possible recession that is troubling the financial markets, even if Friday's data on US employment trends partially reduced the alarm: the US unemployment rate dropped to 3,5% in September , the lowest level since 1969. But "only" 136.000 new jobs were created, less than the expected 145.000.
Thus the hope of the markets for a cut in US rates remains high as early as the end of October. An indication of this could come from the minutes of the last central bank meeting which will be published on Wednesday or, even earlier, from the speech that President Jay Powell will give Tuesday evening at the National Congress of American Economists.
QUARTERLY: IT BEGINS WITH DELTA, EASY JET AND LEVI'S STRAUSS
Meanwhile, the Fed announced that it will continue the injection of liquidity with daily auctions of one-day repos (overnight repos) until November 4 and a series of eight repo auctions (term repos) with maturities of up to 15 days between 22 October and 12 November.
The US quarterly season, which will come alive next week, presents two important previews: the accounts of Levi's Strauss and that of Delta Airlines, potential partner of Alitalia. Easy Jet issues out in London Samsung's quarterly to be followed tomorrow in Seoul.
CATHOLIC DEGREE FOR MISTER EURO
Concerns about the (too low?) cost of money will also dominate Mario Draghi's last weeks at the helm of the ECB. The ultra-accommodative policy is being targeted by an increasingly combative opposition: in a memorandum, former members of the board of the ECB and the former governors of the central banks of Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands judged Mario Draghi's expansionary policy wrong. accusing it of having favored the most indebted countries of the eurozone. The outgoing ECB president will address the Eurogroup on Wednesday. Finally, on Friday, Draghi will be at the Catholic University of Milan where he will receive an honorary degree.
TODAY THE ORDERS ON GERMAN INDUSTRY
The European economy continues to churn out data signaling the slowdown of the eurozone economy. Great expectations today for the data on German industrial orders which will be followed tomorrow by industrial production and, on Wednesday, by the trade balance.
During the week, Germany, France and Spain will provide new details on the trend of their consumer prices. Data on consumer confidence in the Eurozone are also out. The Economic Bulletin of the ECB to be released on Thursday completes the macro picture of the Eurozone.
NOBEL IN SIGHT FOR GRETA, VERSES BLOCK LONDON
The countdown to Brexit continues in London. But the week in which the Swedish Academy could award the Nobel Peace Prize to Greta Turnberg begins in London with the mobilization of Extinction Rebellion, the fierce environmentalist group that promises to paralyze, with its marches and sit-ins, the Parliament area and the surroundings of the City. Similar events will be held throughout Europe, the United States and Australia.
ITALY, THE MOVEMENT UNDERWAY, CONFINDUSTRIA'S FORECASTS
As far as Italy is concerned, the scene will be occupied by public finances and the drafting of the next budget. In fact, the hearings of the joint commissions of the House and Senate will take part today. The first to be heard will be Economy Minister Roberto Gualtieri.
Today Istat arrives the monthly note on the trend of the Italian economy. Confindustria's new economic forecasts are also awaited. Economy Minister Gualtieri is heard by the Senate on the Def
23 FRESHMAN FOR AIM, RAIN OF PURCHASES ON CYBEROO
At Piazza Affari there will be the ceremony for the listing of Cyberoo, a company specializing in cybersecurity which has recorded record results during the placement: the company has achieved an order volume of 40 million euros: a result that exceeds by 5,6 times the funding target set at 7 million. This is the largest oversubscription on AIM Italia since 2009.
At the end of September, Piazza Affari recorded a total of 30 listings, of which 25 were new listings (IPO). The Aim market took the lion's share by winning a total of 23 freshmen. The return to Piazza Affari of the Ferretti group specialized in the construction of yachts is expected on 16 October, which according to some estimates could reach a capitalization of one billion.
When the Stock Exchange is closed, the Treasury will announce the terms of the annual BOT offer which will be issued on 10 October.
