The question of Nagorno-Karabakh has been resolved. The small region inhabited by Armenians trapped inAzerbaijan, from which it has been trying to become independent for decades, will no longer exist. Erased, dissolved, dismembered. Military hands, overwhelmed by the Azerbaijani army. And all its inhabitants, 120 thousand people, are now on the run to save themselves from enemy retaliation.
End of the independent Armenian Republic in Nagorno-Karabakh: what happened
The end actually began last year, in December, when the Azeris closed the only road linking the self-proclaimed republic to Armenia, the Lachin corridor.
So for ten months the Armenians had no medicine, food, gas or electricity because that was the only way to get supplies.
It was the president, Samvel Shahramanyan, who dictated the times of the dissolution of the Republic of Artsakh, as the Armenians call it, in a statement as concise as it is chilling:
- «1) Dissolve all state institutions and organizations in their departmental subordination by January 1, 2024 so that the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) ceases to exist;
- 2) The population of Nagorno-Karabakh, including those outside the Republic, after the entry into force of this Decree, familiarize themselves with the conditions of reintegration presented by the Republic of Azerbaijan, in order to make a decision independent and individual in the future on the possibility of staying (returning) to Nagorno-Karabakh".
In practice, everyone can save themselves.
For now, 90 thousand people have been on the run. But all observers agree that there will not be a single Armenian who wants to coexist with the Azeris.
Why do they run away? Because they fear retaliation. Videos of Azeri soldiers shooting at empty houses and Armenian symbols are circulating online: it is the atavistic hatred that resurfaces every time the two populations find themselves closer than they wish. In reverse order thirty years ago it was the Azeris' turn to flee when the Armenians won. It's a story of violence that starts from afar.
It's all the Soviets' fault. When the Southern Caucasus became part of the nascent socialist state in 1921, with a decision that only disturbed minds could make, and which would influence the lives of those populations for decades, the new masters of Russia assigned Nagorno to the Azerbaijani Soviet Socialist Republic. Karabakh, where Armenians have always lived; while to neighboring Armenia they granted Nakhicevan, a territory where Azerbaijanis lived. Madness. No one was happy, but everyone remained calm while Soviet rule was strong.
But when the empire begins to creak, trouble begins.
The end of the Soviet Union has reopened old rivalries in Nagorno-Karabakh
It begins at the end of the 1987s. Thanks to perestroika and glasnost, Armenians regain space and speech. And starting from 1991 they mobilized to ask Moscow for the union of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. The password is “miatsum” (“union” in Armenian). But nothing happens except outbreaks of violence and tension between the parties. Then comes XNUMX, the USSR dissolves and the Armenians seize the opportunity: they organize a referendum in favor of independence from Azerbaijan. Baku does not recognize the result and war inevitably breaks out.
This first conflict was won by the Armenians. The Azerbaijani army is expelled from the region while the Armenian army also occupies seven Azeri districts neighboring Nagorno-Karabakh, including the Lachin corridor that connects the territory to Armenia, the one that Baku closed ten months ago. The war ended in 1994: it cost 30 thousand deaths as well as destruction and devastation.
And even thirty years ago there was an exodus of the population. But, as mentioned, then it was the Azeris who escaped: hundreds of thousands of people abandoned their homes, the entire Azerbaijani population of Armenia, Nagorno Karakh and neighboring districts fled to Azerbaijan. Which in turn was abandoned by its Armenian minority. A tragedy.
Armenians in Nagorno Karabakh: conflict frozen for thirty years, in favor of the Armenians
In these thirty years, which analysts define as a "frozen" conflict, there have periodically been attacks and deaths on both sides. While the self-proclaimed republic tries to be recognized by the assembly of the nations of the world without succeeding. The paradox is that not even Armenia, which guaranteed its defense and economic sustenance, has ever recognized it. Only Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria did so, not surprisingly other republics at war with their respective states, Georgia and Moldova. Negotiations, however, remained open and led nowhere.
And as time passed, Nagorno-Karabakh became the founding myth of the nationalism of both countries. For the Armenians, the victory in the first conflict represented collective redemption for the loss of what was called "Western Armenia", that is, the eastern part of Anatolia where the Armenian population lived, victims of the genocide of 1915 by Turkey. For Azerbaijanis, the trauma of defeat built a nationalism based on a single characteristic: hatred of all things Armenian.
Nagorno Karabakh: in 2020 the turnaround rewards the Azeris
In 2020 the tables are turned, Azerbaijan wins. Baku has invested all the revenue from gas sales to build an army equipped with the most powerful weapons. In 2016 he did a dress rehearsal with an assault that lasted just four days. Then in 2020 he launches the real offensive. And in the 44 days of war the Azerbaijani army prevailed over the Armenian forces. He also reconquers many of the lost districts and above all a symbolic city for both sides, the holy city of Shusha. The ceasefire agreement, with Russian mediation, is essentially one Armenian surrender. Yerevan's army must leave the positions occupied in the previous conflict and above all the future status of the region is not defined. While Russia acts as guarantor of Armenian security by deploying a peacekeeping force in the territory and on the Lachin corridor.
Russia's war in Ukraine also shuffles the cards in the Caucasus
Everything could have continued like this if Moscow had not opened the Ukrainian front. The war in Kiev also changes the cards on the table in the Caucasus. Assuming that the Kremlin wanted to safeguard the demands of the Armenians, after all, the other self-proclaimed republics also survive thanks to the Russians, with the economic sanctions in place Putin needs different allies.
Azerbaijan assures Russia of transit route for energy exports, therefore, goodbye Nagorno-Karabakh, good morning Baku. And since the Azerbaijani road is an important source of raw materials for European states too, this is how Azerbaijan finds itself free to do whatever it wants.
And he wants to close the story of Nagorno-Karabakh once and for all.
The run-up began in September last year directly with the attack on Armenia. The Azerbaijani army occupies some positions and retreats. Then in December Baku blocks the aforementioned Lachin corridor, and the strangulation of Nagorno-Karabakh begins.
And Russia is watching.
Relations between Russia and Armenia are increasingly tense
The consequence of this indifference is that relations between Moscow and Yerevan are becoming increasingly tense. Prime Minister Pashinyan is starting to think about changing alliances and is looking towards the West, so much so that in an interview (with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica) he defined the alliance with Russia as a "strategic mistake".
When Baku attacks in earnest, that is, on September 19th, the historic Russia-Armenia friendship no longer exists . Moscow defines what is happening in Nagorno-Karabakh as "an internal matter within Azerbaijan" while the media subservient to the Kremlin lash out at Pashinyan for wanting to distance his country from the Russian orbit. Pure hypocrisy.
But why did the Azeris invest so much in Nagorno Karabakh?
One last question remains, but not the least important: why did the Azeris invest all their energy to gain control of a remote territory like Nagorno-Karabakh? Is it just a question of history and sacred places? And revenge?
They will be there too, history, sacred places and revenge; but most of all there are two pipelines carrying oil and gas from Azerbaijan through the Caucasus, and both pass just 60 kilometers from Nagorno-Karabakh.
Those black mountains are well worth a war.
