And yet it moves, still in the rear, but the long-awaited third pole is starting to warm up its engines. And if it's true that, as CEO Luigi Lovaglio said, "all roads lead to Siena”, the market is already preparing for the second phase of the Italian banking risk which will have as absolute protagonists MPS and Banco BPM. This can also be seen in the performances of the title of Piazza Meda which has gained about 8% in the last month on speculation about an upcoming wedding.
MPS-Banco BPM: initial contacts
The former, after a €14 billion takeover bid, is pursuing its integration as Mediobanca and trying to figure out how and whether to manage the invaluable Generali stake that Piazzetta Cuccia brought with it. The latter, after the acquisition of Anima, repelled Unicredit's assault with the government's help. But after Orcel's rejection, Banco's CEO, Giuseppe Castagna, may be preparing to say: Yes to Luigi Lovaglio, whose return to the CEO position of MPS also came with the favorable vote of Banco BPM, which holds 3,7% of the Sienese bank.
According to the Courier, talks between the two banks are reportedly accelerating, with Goldman Sachs apparently joining the bank's longtime advisors, Citi and Lazard. "We are in the best position to seize the potential opportunities arising from further market consolidation," Castagna said in early May. And according to rumors, the right moment could arrive soon, already at the turn of summer, with the shareholders' meeting voting by the end of the year. Although some believe Lovaglio's intention is to first complete the Mediobanca integration and then focus on other matters.
MPS-Banco BPM: The numbers of a potential third group
According to the figures calculated by Bnp Paribas, the merger between MPS and Banco Bpm would lead to the creation of a third banking hub Approximately 450 billion in assets, 15% market share in loans, 13% in deposits, 2.900 branches and 10 customers. The combined market capitalization would reach 50 billion euros, third after Intesa Sanpaolo's 101 billion and Unicredit's 110 billion.
And then there are the branches, which will necessarily have to be sold after the wedding. For BNP Paribas and Morgan Stanley, cited by Courier, there are 130 due to a concentration of branches that would reach 20-30% in Tuscany, Lombardy, Liguria, and Veneto, well beyond the antitrust limits. The price to acquire them would be approximately €730 million.
And Crédit Agricole?
In this scenario, the role of cannot be ignored Crédit Agricole, the largest shareholder in Banco BPM with a 22,9% stake. In the event of a merger, Banque Verte would be diluted to 10%, Delfin to 11%, Caltagirone to 6%, and the Treasury to 3%. It's hard to imagine the French sitting idly by. Thus, the inspiration for solving the problem could come from the past: from 2006, when Agricole exchanged its stake in Intesa Sanpaolo for Cariparma. The branches to be sold in regions where the French have a small market share could be a bargain that everyone would agree on. However, it's unclear what the Minister of Economy and Finance would say. Giancarlo Giorgetti, always sensitive to the banking balances of territories that represent the League's stronghold. Without forgetting Agos, 31% of which is currently held by the bank, or potential insurance partnerships. In short, there are many scenarios, but the game has already begun.
