The Research Area of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena has prepared the tenth Art Market Report, which summarizes the results of the third quarter of 2011 and estimates the results of the fourth quarter of 20111, analyzing the only ones sold in the major recurring world auctions of the last five years. Estimates predict a good recovery in the sector, only the Post War segment is still suffering from the liquidity crisis of the financial markets, but the exceptional exploit of the Asian markets instills confidence for the future.
Il paint market, in particular, in the second half of 2011 is expected up by +17,6%, but still below the levels reached in 2010 (-3,6%) confirming the reflective phase crossed by the market. Overall, the estimated performance of the MPS Global Painting Art Index is better than the expected results on the individual sectors with the highest contribution (Pre War and Post War), thanks to the positive results of the multi-sector auctions.
In the analysis by compartments, the Mps Art Old Masters and 19thC Index, is down in the first half of 2011 by -12,2% compared to the previous year, but is expected to grow sharply in the second half (+134,8% approx. on the first half of 2011) due to the normal seasonal nature of the sector .
Il Pre War sector is estimated to be recovering compared to the first half of 2011 (+34,7% approximately), although the year-on-year comparison remains negative: approximately -8,5%.
Il Mps Art Post War Index represents the sector most affected in the last 5 years by the market crisis: in the first half of 2009 the index had already fallen below the levels of 2006 and, according to internal estimates, also in the second half of 2011 it will be far from the peak reached in the first semester 2008.
The growth of China and other Asian markets in the contemporary segment could bring the contemporary sector back to pre-crisis levels. The Chinese buyer seems to be particularly interested in speculative buying and/or status buying. As a consequence, Chinese artists are on the rise, supported by strong local demand; Eastern auction houses are growing in the world's top ten in terms of turnover, more and more Western players are trying to enter the new rich market by opening commercial outlets.
And theItaly? The current situation is a little worrying: both the share of global turnover are decreasing (1,9% compared to the maximum point of 3,6% in 2009) and the number of auction appointments, moreover, none of the Italian artists appears in the top ten records of the last year.
In the sector of “minor arts” the “jewellery” segment shows the most interesting growth rates, with a progress of 160,8% over the last 5 years (I semester 2011 compared to I semester 2006) and a positive forecast for the II semester 2011 (+30,2% on the previous year).
The returns of the MPS Art Market Value Index and the MPS Jewels Market Value Index in the period September 2008 - September 2011 they are decidedly positive (+24,7% and +63,5% respectively) and higher than the other national stock market indices all considered in negative territory: SMI (-4,9%), CAC 40 (-36,7%) and Ftse Mib (-54,5%) with the exception of the S&P 500 (+2,7, 13,5%). However, since the beginning of the year the performances of the MPS Art Market Value Index and the MPS Jewels Market Value Index have been affected by the difficulty of the financial markets, taking on a negative sign (-20,5% and -XNUMX%).
