Hot days for the Berlusconi galaxy. It all started yesterday with the Milan shareholders' meeting, perhaps the last one which will end with various Fininvest payments. That is 99 million divided as follows: 53 million with capital account payment or coverage of losses 46 million for partial use of the capital account payment, already made on 20 March 2015 for a total of 60 million.
For 2014, Milan closed with a loss of 91,3 million, enough to put Marina Berlusconi in a black mood. From today, barring surprises, the Asian derby will get underway between the Thai Bee, who goes shopping around Milan, and the Chinese Richard Lee to win control (“far from certain ending” admonishes Adriano Glliani) of what it has always been one of the dearest jewels of the Forza Italia leader's empire: the Rossoneri team is destined, assures Alberto Forchielli, the founder of the Mandarin fund, for a Chinese future according to the directives of the president himself Ji Xingping, who wants to grow as soon as possible a team worthy of the Dragon's ambitions.
In the meantime, every day is good for the publication of the sentence of the Lazio Regional Administrative Court on Silvio Berlusconi's appeal against the obligation set by the Bank of Italy to sell the share that exceeds 9,9% of Fininvest in Mediolanum as a result of the loss of the honourability requirements of the former prime minister, definitively convicted of tax fraud.
Finally, after the upward "break" on Monday, the Mediaset stock floats around the prices on the eve waiting for news that could already arrive today, on the occasion of the media group assembly, or we will have to wait for the outcome of the Vivendi board of May 12, when, according to L'Expansion, Vincent Bolloré will present to the directors of the Parisian media giant, 11 billion cash strong, the growth plans that could include a purchase proposal for the Alfa Romeo. In the meantime, the market is betting on Telecom Italia, of which Vivendi will soon be the number one shareholder.
In short, the situation is in full swing, which authorizes speculation of all kinds. But the big news is that the hypothesis of Silvio Berlusconi taking a step back from the financial area is no longer considered science fiction. On the contrary, one has the sensation of a process already underway, more of a repositioning linked to family and political needs (in addition to the registry office) than a retreat.
But is the hypothesis of Fininvest leaving Mediaset credible? It is not difficult to foresee a colorful denial by Fedele Confalonieri and Pier Silvio Berlusconi on the occasion of the meeting, both in relation to the offer from Bolloré and the one that could come from Sky. At most, it is possible to hypothesize an agreement with Telecom Italia for the use of the Mediaset Premium platform, already open to Telefonica. But, beyond the denials, many indications suggest that something could change on the horizon of the group. For different reasons.
Mediaset remains limited to the Italian and Spanish markets in a competitive ring that has now assumed global dimensions. In recent years, the Alfa Romeo group has been able to defend profitability, despite the difficulties of the advertising market. But the turnover is stationary on the values of ten years ago (around 3,67 billion in turnover) with a profit of 23,7 million, just over 1 percent of revenues. In short, the group earns little, as evidenced by the Stock Exchange quotation, around the middle of 2005. In the meantime, Fininvest sold a stake of 7,74% last February, reducing its stake to 33,4%.
An operation, according to the press release of the finance company, linked to the desire to "continue with the strengthening of the financial and capital structure of the company and to facilitate any investments with a view to diversifying the share portfolio". Ambiguous formula that lends itself to multiple readings. After all, even the most important investment, i.e. the 700 million for the three-year exclusivity of the Champions League, can be interpreted more as a move to create appeal in front of a possible partner than an operation with a sure economic return.
Can you really imagine Mediaset without a Berlusconi? Difficult. But it is much easier to hypothesize a multi-pronged alliance that could allow the Biscione company to face the all-round challenge that is looming between content producers who are so demanding that they require international outlet markets and owners of the networks.
A combination between Vivendi (see Canal plus plus Universal), Telecom Italia, Mediaset Premium supported by Mediobanca (of which Bolloré is the second shareholder) could face a pleasant European competition in which the Vodafone-Sky Europe blockade is looming, leaving Rupert Murdoch the honor of giving the takeover to Time Warner after the failure of the marriage with Comcast of the US group. Without forgetting the other links between content producers such as Netflix and the TLCs determined to beat more profitable terrain before being engulfed by the greats of the web.
In this great bullfight, it makes sense that the Berlusconi family, perhaps by resorting to multiple votes, continue its retreat from the more expensive playgrounds while still guaranteeing itself a solid financial position, active in terms of business (see Mondadori) and more flexible, in view of possible divisions among the heirs. Waiting for the patriarch Silvio not to upset the games with a surprise move which, since it is him, would not be too surprising.
