Another day of passion for the financial markets, which had already started the week on the wrong foot yesterday, marked by a significant rise in oil prices and the consequent alarm on inflation, which in turn led to a surge in government bond yields, in particular the US 10-year T-Bond, which exceeded 5%, reaching its highest level since 2007. Everything therefore suggests that the Federal Reserve may increase its reference interest rates at its meeting on Wednesday 16 September: futures are pricing in a probability now around 90–95% of a 25 basis point hikeIn this scenario, Western stock markets are still suffering: Dow Jones -1% for now, Nasdaq Composite Index -0,7%, Nasdaq Top-100 -0,5%, Milan -0,14%, Paris -0,34%, Frankfurt -0,15%, London -0,37%.
Brent crude oil at $108, European natural gas at €80
Oil prices are rising further: Brent crude has surpassed $108 a barrel from yesterday's close of $107, while WTI crude has jumped more than 3% to approach $105. Supply disruptions in the Middle East are thus outweighing signs of progress toward an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, according to investors. Market attention remains focused on Saudi Arabia, where the East-West pipeline has been shut down and the Houthis in Yemen have taken control of access to the Red Sea, eliminating an important alternative route for crude oil exports that did not depend on the Strait of Hormuz. European natural gas prices, however, have fallen slightly, but remain at around 80 euros per megawatt-hour. LNG storage levels in Europe stand at around 68% of capacity, a figure still below the seasonal average in a period when inventories should usually be close to maximum capacity.
Gold and silver move little, BTP Bund spread remains close to 90 basis points.
Still on the raw materials front, gold and silver have little to say: the former is hovering around $4.300 an ounce, the latter is trading at $63 an ounce today. Positive trend for the US dollar against the euro, with the exchange rate today at 1,154. Bitcoin is losing momentum: after briefly flirting with $80.000, it is now down 3% to $76.000. The BTP-Bund spread remains under pressure, approaching 90 basis points, the highest level since early April 2026. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTP rises to 4,4%, at its highest levels since November 2023.
AI recovers on the Nasdaq despite warnings about its future.
Artificial intelligence appears to be recovering on the Nasdaq, despite mounting alarms about its uncontrolled development: Among the most traded stocks are Meta +0,4%, Micron +0,5%, Nvidia +0,6%Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon, on the other hand, are down more than 1%. Tesla is in the green, while in the Musk galaxy, SpaceX is currently down more than 2%. The biggest gainers among tech stocks are Qualcomm +4%, Marvell +2,6%, AMD +2%, Intel +1,2%, and Lumentum +1%. Axon sinks -10% After the company announced a $1 billion convertible bond issue, investors fear future shareholder dilution, as the bonds can be converted into equity. Significant losses also for Netflix -3% and Booking -2,5%.
Energy is doing well in Milan, but (almost) all banks are struggling.
What about Piazza Affari? In a negative session for the FTSE MIB, energy stocks stood out, bucking the trend: Tenaris +3,3%, Terna +2,9%, Eni +1,75%, Saipem +1,65%. With the exception of MPS +1,53% and Mediobanca +1,43%, banks generally close in the red, in the midst of a game of risk on which there is still uncertainty: Unicredit is the worst with -2,24% after the meeting between CEO Orcel and the German Finance MinisterBper -1,66%, Mediolanum -0,56%, Banco Bpm -0,43%, Intesa Sanpaolo -0,2%. Among the worst performing stocks was Moncler -2%. On equality between Poste Italiane and Telecom Italia, while the takeover bid launched by Matteo Del Fante's company is nearing completion.
