In the morning, as expected, Angela Merkel spoke in front of the Bundestag. You stressed that solving the European sovereign debt crisis “could take years”. But you also recalled that fiscal union is close, "it's on the agenda". You were more positive than Sarkozy yesterday. Stock markets are reacting well to her words. Around 10, Piazza Affari gained more than 2 percent.
The storm isn't over. Indeed, she looms more menacing than ever. It is the sense ofspeech by Mario Draghi to the European Parliament but also Nicolas Sarkozy's cry of alarm (“the EU risks being swept away”). But politics is struggling to "find credibility", as the president of the ECB asks. A good occasion could be the speech that Angela Merkel will give today in the Bundestag illustrating the strategy that Germany will hold at the next summit of heads of state. But, according to forecasts, the chancellor will repeat the usual line.
In Italy, meanwhile, Mario Monti prepares for the baptism of fire. Sunday morning, on the eve of the presentation of the anti-crisis measures, the prime minister will meet the social partners who, having forgotten their good intentions, promise battle: another test to verify the credibility of politicians and technicians.
OXYGEN FOR BTPs. The positive streak of the Milan Stock Exchange came to a halt and after five consecutive rising sessions the Ftse Mib index closed down by 0,16% at 15244 points. For London the drop is 0,25% and for Paris 0,77%. But the situation on the sovereign debt front is improving: the yield on 10-year BTPs drops by 37 basis points to 6,61% while the Italy-Germany differential narrows to 444 basis points, the lowest since the beginning of November.
Even Wall Street lost momentum after Wednesday's lions, despite the good data on the manufacturing industry: the Dow Jones index falls by 0,19%, the Standard & Poor's 500 by 0,21%. Especially the securities of the financial sector are suffering. Among the reasons for the slowdown in US price lists, the news that the State of Massachusetts has decided to sue some of the major US banks for their behavior, judged illegal, with regard to evictions for unpaid mortgages stands out. In the sights of the Boston government are Bank of America and JP Morgan.
LATERAL MOVEMENTS, REFLECTIVE TREND. After the rally, the markets are cold in the face of good macro news (see US data) or coming from government bonds. Furthermore, few will want to face the weekend with open positions: the political-financial situation is too fluid to fuel confidence.
GOLDMAN: WALL STREET TOWARDS ZERO GROWTH. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin gives no hope: at the end of 2012 the S& P index will be at 1.250, more or less on the same current levels (1244 yesterday). The US economy, it is reasoned, remains in a depressive phase, the increase in corporate profits will only serve to avoid a collapse.
The euro is trading against the dollar at 1,347 from 1,343 yesterday evening and after a short bet over 1,35.
Pier Francesco Guarguaglini, involved in the enav procurement investigation, leaves the post of president of Finmeccanica which is assumed, with the related powers, by the current managing director, Giuseppe Orsi. The office of chairman is added to that of managing director held since 4 May. Alessandro Pansa, who maintains his position as general manager, joins the board. It is with an entirely internal solution to the group that the word is written to end one of the most tormented chapters in the history of the aerospace and defense holding company. But the latest controversy over the manager's liquidation continues: 4 million net. Finmeccanica yesterday recorded a 2,7% rise on the Stock Exchange after a downward start.
Franking is good for policies. Fondiaria Sai closed yesterday with an increase of 9,3%. As a result of the freeing up of goodwill on assets, the solvency margin increased by 5,3 percentage points. In mid-November, the company said it had set itself the goal of achieving a 120% solvency margin "in the shortest time possible" compared to 111% at the end of September.
Good rise for Unipol +2,9%: the Coop company has also started the release of goodwill recorded in the 2010 financial statements for an amount of €1,54bn, the immediate disbursement is approximately €247m and the expected tax savings are approximately 430 million euros. The impact on the solvency margin is 8 percentage points.
Contrast the banks: Ubi -1,8%, Pop. Emilia -2,2%, Unicredit -0,4%, Monte Paschi +1,7%, Banca Popolare di Milano +1,8%.
Eni gained 0,2%, Tenaris lost 1,4%, Saipem 2,5%. Market begins to evaluate the hypothesis of an embargo on Iranian crude oil.
Telecom Italia lost 0,3% while the rally of the subsidiary Telecom Italia Media continued (+9,8%): Tarak Ben Ammar denied wanting to launch a takeover bid on the media company but his denials did not dampen speculation .
Luxottica +1%, the acquisition of the Brazilian Grupo Tecnol. Under the terms of the agreement, the total value is approximately 110 million euros.
