The outflow of funds and capital from emerging markets has already started due to the risk of changes in US monetary policy.
The words of Fed chairman Bernanke, who has not ruled out a review of the quantitative easing policy, were enough for western capital, so far abundant, to show signs of a reversal of flows.
The increase in yields on 10-year US bonds in the near future, the current 2,15%, remains a low figure in the future, will cause a strong maneuver to drain liquidity from markets around the world, forcing the countries involved to pay higher returns or to accept devaluations and inflation.
The problem is already manifesting itself: in May, the Brazilian real and the Mexican peso lost 6% in value against the dollar. The Indian rupee is at its lowest in nearly a year, the Turkish lira has bottomed out since January 2012 (although political risk considerations are also involved in the latter case). The devaluation has led to an increase in local bond yields, and inflation from imported goods is starting to take its toll. The possibility that international capital flows less abundantly is already creating problems for financing the current account deficits of emerging countries, undermining their growth.
An idea of the phenomenon in quantitative terms can be given by the trend of the MSCI Emerging Markets index, which has already collapsed by 20% compared to April 2012.
