The tones are lowered, but the trade war continues. The markets take note of this and head towards government bonds, with the exception of BTPs, victims of our local electoral convulsions. The rush to the bond markets, in accordance with the lower risk appetite, had the effect of pushing down the yields of bonds and bunds. The 2,3715-year US bond fell to 1017% to its lowest since December 2,1534. The two-year bond, the most important for the purposes of the Fed's choices, fell to 0,1%. The same trend in Europe: the yield on the ten-year Bund slipped to -2016%, as it hadn't happened since XNUMX. In this context, the Italian exception is even more worrying, also because the malaise of the Bel Paese's bonds cannot be attributed only to the political turbulence, but to the uncertainty that dominates the prospects for public finances.
WALL STREET RECOVERS, CHINA ALSO RISES
In this framework, stock lists live a precarious normality, awaiting events. The US, after having granted Europe and Japan a six-month truce on car duties, has launched a new torpedo in the direction of Beijing. From today, Huawei has entered the black list: US companies will not be able to buy equipment from the Chinese telecommunications giant or sell it components or Qualcomm chips. Meanwhile, Treasury data confirms that China has been a net seller of T bonds since September. All that remains is to sail on sight, in the hope of not crossing new icebergs.
This morning the stock exchanges of China (CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges +0,2%) and India (BSE Sensex of Mumbai +0,2%) are slightly up, slowing down the Nikkei of Tokyo (-0,5 %) and the Kospi of Seoul (-0,75%), despite Hiunday and Kia having avoided US tariffs.
The main currencies of the Asia Pacific area also show little movement. The Chinese yuan has been at 6,87 for three days, a sign that for the moment the big maneuvers are at a standstill.
CONSUMPTION IN BEIJING IS HOLDING BACK, THE USA SLOWS DOWN TOO
Consumption slowed down, recording the most robust slowdown since 2003. Thus the effects of the trade war are beginning to be seen, which is also being felt among the US rival: surprisingly, in April, sales of cars and other goods fell, while the industrial production fell by 0,5%.
The US markets rose yesterday: Dow Jones +0,45%, S&P500 +0,58%, Nasdaq +1,13% thanks to the progress of Alphabet and Facebook.
OIL ON THE RISE DESPITE INCREASING STOCKS
Brent oil was up 0,5%, Brent at 72,10 dollars a barrel even as in the United States crude inventories rose by 5,4 million barrels to 472 million, the highest since September 2017.
EUROPE ACCELERATES, MILAN STAYS BEHIND
Only Piazza Affari did not celebrate the news of the six-month postponement of the US ultimatum on European cars, already set for May 18, with a plus sign. Donald Trump has thus chosen not to open another front with Europe and Japan, just as the confrontation with China is gaining momentum. The head of the negotiators with China, Robert Lighthizer, himself solicited the truce, evidently worried about keeping the pressure on Beijing high.
Milan, down by an abundant percentage point up to an hour after the closing, closed the session at -0,14%, at 22.781. The value of trades amounted to 2,84 billion euros, with an increase of no less than 488 million euros (+20,79%).
In the late afternoon, a note from Prometeia updated the forecast for growth, bringing the estimate for 2019 from 0,1% to 0,2% but that for 2020 from 0,7% to 0,6%.
STERLING AT THE MINIMUM, TOWARDS A NEW NO TO THE MAY PLAN
The recovery is led by Frankfurt (+0,92%), the market most tied to the fate of the four-wheel industry. Daimler +2,5% from -1% in the morning. Paris +0,44%; Madrid +0,55%. Outside the Eurozone London +0,8%, driven by the fall of the pound, to its lows in 2019 at 1,2838 against the dollar: Labor has said it will not vote in favor of the Brexit plan that Theresa May intends to submit to the vote of the Municipalities (for the fourth time).
SALVINI PUSHES THE SPREAD TOWARDS 300
End of session contrasted but negative for the Btp at the end of a session of heavy losses in which the spread with respect to the Bund flew to a new record for over three months.
The climate is one of strong nervousness marked by increasingly heated tones on the part of Matteo Salvini who, in search of consensus, has embraced the hard line in the confrontation with Brussels on public finances.
Yesterday the Northern League leader relaunched increasingly aggressive statements towards the European Union which is "starving a continent".
After a flare up to 292 basis points, the highest since 8 February, the risk premium between the Italian 285-year bond and the Bund closed at 281 basis points from 2029 last night. The 2,75-year rate for August 2,808 is indicated as closing at 2,74% after a peak of XNUMX%, against XNUMX% on the eve.
The 0,12-year German Bund fell to -2016%, a level not seen since October XNUMX.
TRIA: OUR GOALS HAVE NOT CHANGED
Economy Minister Giovanni Tria defined the nervousness of the markets as "unjustified but understandable" on the eve of the European vote, but assures that the government's public finance objectives remain those "proposed by the government itself and approved by the parliament with the Economic document and finance. The government is working to ensure that these objectives are achieved within the framework of a policy of support for growth and employment."
Bloomberg reports that Sergio Mattarella is also worried, the President of the Republic sees the public finances at risk, above all he fears it will not be possible to find an agreement on the next budget law.
FERRAGAMO, THE CAR AND STM SHINE ON THE STOCK MARKET
Fly in the stock market Salvatore Ferragamo (+9%), returned to review the growth, in terms of revenues, after a long period of stagnation. Both Kepler Cheuvreux and Société Générale have raised the rating on the stock to hold.
The entire European automotive sector reversed its downward trend following Trump's decision: the sector closed at +2%.
Fiat Chrysler (+1,50%) immediately increased by more than one point, going from a minimum of 12,61 euros to 13,10 euros. Pirelli +2%.
Stm rises (+3%) on the wave of the meeting with analysts on the eve. Kepler Cheuvreux and Oddo BHF (target at 22 euros from 20) have raised the rating to Buy.
ITALGAS AT HIGHEST, BANKS UNDER PRESSURE
On positive ground A2A (+2%), which closed the quarter with net profits of 104 million, down on last year's figure (173 million), but 10 million above the estimates for the quarter.
Snam -1%. The net result was slightly better than expected, at 283 million euros, better than expected thanks to the contribution of equity investments. The stock trades at a 13% premium on the EV/RAB indicator.
Italgas +0,3%, new all-time high. Banca Akros raised the target price to 5,4 euro from 5,2, confirming the rating at neutral, after the positive quarterly results.
Unicredit (-1%) issued a statement of denial, at the request of Consob, on an alleged offer on Commerzbank. Weak sector under spread pressure. Ubi Banca -2%, Intesa Sanpaolo -1%.
THE ACCOUNTS REWARD DATALOGIC AND GIMA
Day dominated by quarterly reports even outside the main basket.
Fly Datalogic (+6%). The optical reader company closes the first quarter with 115 million euros (+1%) and profit up 12%, better than expected. Banca Akros raises its judgment from hold to buy, target price confirmed at 25 euros.
Gima TT +5% following the publication of the quarterly results.
Mediaset (+2,2%) closed the first quarter with 12 million euro of operating profit, a strong improvement from the loss of 35 million a year earlier. \lsdl
