Exports continue to drive Italy. The GDP decreases, consumption slows down, but made in Italy continues to be tempting throughout the world and Italian exports show positive figures. This is what emerges from the latest analysis by Prometeia, the study center of Intesa Sanpaolo, on export trends in the first ten months of 2011. Italian manufacturing exports grew by 12,6% in the first ten months of 2011, a more lively pace than that recorded in Germany (+11,3%).
The sectors that recorded the best results were the metallurgy , mechanics. In acceleration compared to 2010 also the fashion system, where Italy benefits from its role as a manufacturing base for the great luxury houses. The most recent data confirms this good rhythms of growth for sales to non-EU countries, with a growth trend in November of 10,5% and 11,2% in December. On the other hand, direct sales to EU markets, penalized by the sovereign debt crisis, show signs of deterioration. In France and Germany, the main outlet markets for Italian exports, le sales of the textile-clothing and motor vehicle sectors fell back into negative territory in November, but also exports of metallurgy and chemical intermediates show a strong deceleration, as a consequence of the growing prudence of the production plans of the companies of these two countries.
The only good news of the eurozone crisis is that a devaluation of the single currency supports Italian exports. With a weak currency, the potential demand for Italian products can increase. In particular, for sectors that allocate a significant portion of their supply to non-EU markets (such as mechanics and electrical engineering) a devaluation in the order of 10% can favor an increase in the growth of sales on world markets between 1,5 and 3% in real terms. Even the production of consumer goods, first and foremost the fashion system, still receive undoubted advantages by expanding the audience of world consumers able to buy Made in Italy designer products.
In our country it is difficult to hope for a short-term recovery of pre-crisis levels. Domestic demand is declining and concerns about future prospects for income and savings strongly increase caution in household spending decisions and business investment decisions.
The risk is that small and medium-sized Italian enterprises, the least projected towards international markets, will be most affected. According to the Prometeia survey, a first step to increase the competitiveness of these companies is the adaptation to the European regulations on the payment times of the State. At the current stage, the ability to continue to grow on non-EU markets is a fundamental element to support the evolution of Italian manufacturing.
