The goal is ambitious but achievable, provided there is political stability. This was stated by Prime Minister Enrico Letta, after the Government approved the update note of the Economic and Financial Document, which contains the new macroeconomic framework and the national reform program for the next few years. The ambition would be to bring the deficit/GDP ratio below 3% by the end of 2013 and bring the btp/bund spread to 100 basis points within two years.
The data that emerged today, however, are not exactly rosy. The government revised the 2013 GDP negatively, from -1,3% to -1,7%, and forecast a "trend" overshoot of the deficit ceiling for the current year: its ratio to GDP should rise at 3,1%.
"The interruption of the fall in rates and the resumption of political instability weigh on the accounts and for this reason we have not been able to write 3% today" in the Def - explained the premier - "but there is the commitment to stay below 3% at the end of the year. There is a confirmed commitment to maintain the agreements made with European partners and with the European Union”.
Economy Minister Fabrizio Saccomanni announced that the gross domestic product will return to the plus sign in the fourth quarter of 2013. According to executive estimates, GDP will grow by 1% in 2014 and rise up to 2% in 1. span of the forecast period. Saccomanni added that “the July figure is negative across Europe and has brought attention to the forecasts for the quarter, but other data we have continue to support that the fourth quarter will be positive and next year will be solid. All the data can be reviewed, but in the XNUMX% forecast we have used all possible precautions, so we are confident, it is a possible scenario, but not without risks"
The head of the department in Via XX Settembre, satisfied with the approval of the Def, underlined the fact that the structural reforms would have had a good effect on the accounts. “Continuing on this path – said Saccomanni – it is possible to hypothesize a gradual reduction of the spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds to 100 basis points at the end of the forecast period.”
Lastly, the minister updated the count of repayments by the Public Administration, explaining that "payments to creditors have risen to 11,3 billion" and underlining that "63% of the credits expected in the second half of the year" have been paid.
Meanwhile, the Government is trying to appease spirits on the subject of Imu. After the alarm raised by the Anci, Palazzo Chigi assures that the resources will be guaranteed to the municipalities during the week. “With reference to the press reports relating to the risks for payments by local authorities in relation to the non-payment of Imu resources – reads an official note – it is recalled that the decree law n. 102 of 2013, which ordered the suppression of the payment of the installment, at the same time provided that these resources will be attributed to the Municipalities on the basis of a decree of the Minister of the Interior, in agreement with the Minister of Economy and Finance, having heard the Conference State-City to be adopted by 30 September 2013”.
