CARS AND BANKS PUSH EUROPE INTO RECOVERY. TWO TESTS TODAY: 2014 GDP AND MOODY'S RATING
The agreement in Ukraine, the optimism (it is not known how justified) on the possible agreement with Greece and the surprise move by the Swedish central bank, which lowered the discount rate below zero, have allowed the stock exchanges to recover positive.
Thus, Asian stock markets closed the week slightly up, with the exception of Tokyo, down slightly. Indices up on Wall Street: Dow Jones +0,62%, the S&P 500 +0,9% and Nasdaq +1,18% also thanks to the advance of Apple +1,27% to 126 dollars and the leap of Cisco + 9% thanks to the excellent quarterly.
The rebound in oil (Wti up to 51,21) rewarded Exxon and Chevron, up about 2%. Same script in Europe: Eni gained 2,5%, Saipem + 2%Tenaris +1,9%. Total +0,85%, on results day. Worth noting is the strong recovery of the euro to 1,1423, the maximum for the week.
TOP BUSINESS PLACE. JUDGMENT ON THE RATING IN THE EVENING
The prospect of a peace process in Ukraine and the signal arriving from the ECB, which has increased ELA funds from 60 to 65 billion (available for the emergency in Athens) have allowed the stock markets of the Old Continent to achieve conspicuous increases: the Eurostoxx index is at its highest since 2007.
Two demanding tests are looming today. First of all, the publication of the preliminary data on the Eurozone's GDP: a modest +0,2% is expected. Even more important for Italy is the rating update by Moody's, which will be published when the Stock Exchange is closed.
In the meantime, Piazza Affari closed yesterday's day with a nice rise of 2,1%, the best result among the European stock exchanges, all making strong progress after the announcement of the agreement in Minsk for a truce in Ukraine. The London Stock Exchange gained 0,2%, Paris +1%, Frankfurt +1,5%, Madrid +1,7%.
THE BTP ATTEMPTS TO OVERTAKE SPAIN. RATES BELOW ZERO IN SWEDEN
Difficult start, growing ending for the public debt market. The Btp/Bund spread, which rose to 138, then retreated to 127 after the news on the negotiations for Ukraine. Only three cents separate the Italian title from the Spanish Bono. Also marking the day was the drastic move by the Swedish central bank which aligned itself with European QE: the repo rate, i.e. the main rate, fell to -0,10% from zero, coinciding with the announcement of a government bonds for 10 billion crowns. Stockholm added that it stands ready to do more if necessary to safeguard its inflation target.
The Treasury was thus able to successfully complete the auction on medium-long term securities: interest rates at their lowest and placement of securities for 8 billion, ie the entire amount on offer. The new 7-year BTP (4 billion) was assigned a yield of 1,23% from 1,29% in mid-January. The 3-year BTP, offered for 2-2,5 billion, was assigned for 2,5 billion, at a rate of 0,44% (0,61% in the previous auction). The 15-year was finally placed for 1,5 billion with a yield of 2,10% from 2,46%.
FLY MPS: LIKE THE STATE IN THE CAPITAL
Italian banks yesterday pulled the sprint to the European sector index (Stoxx +1,8%). In the spotlight the incredible session of Monte Paschi. After a sharply bearish start, with a low at 0,4045 euros, the institute reversed course and closed with a gain of 12,8% at 0,4843 euros.
The change of course, after the announcement of the operating losses and the capital increase to 3 billion, is linked to two factors: the government's acceleration on the bad bank, as Prime Minister Matteo Renzi anticipated.
Second, the Ministry of the Economy will enter the capital of the bank as a result of the conversion into Montepaschi shares of the coupon maturing in 2015 of the Monti bonds. The terms provide that the payment in shares takes place when the bank closes with a loss and this is exactly what happened in 2014. The amount in favor of the Treasury will be 243 million euros of interest accrued on 2014. After the expected capital increase from 3 billion, on the agenda by mid-2015, the Ministry of the Economy could have about 5% of the capital.
GROUPAMA OUTSIDE MEDIOBANCA. INTESA TAKES FLIGHT
A brilliant day for the entire credit sector, with the exception of Unicredit down 0,5% despite the closing of the sale of Uccmb to the Fortress group. Great performance by Understanding which gained 5%. Ubi + 3,5% Banco Popular + 4,5% Mediobanca +3,3%, e Pop.Milan +3,1%. Salt too Mediobanca +3,3%. Groupama sold the 4,9% held in the institute with an accelerated book building operation with institutional operators.
Algebris, Davide Serra's company, clarified its position in the popular banks in the evening, in response to the rumors caused by the Consob investigation on suspicious movements in securities close to the announcement of the reform. Between 1 and 19 January, Algebris did not buy any securities in the sector. However, it sold (with a capital loss) a package of 5.254.928 Banco Popolare shares,purchased in 2014. Algebris specifies that it has never carried out operations on Popular Bank of Etruria suspended yesterday after the receivership by the Bank of Italy.
The insurances are also positive: Generali + 1,1% UnipolSai + 1,3%.
RENAULT SUPERSTAR, FCA THE HEEL
The leading sector in Europe was the Automotive (European Stoxx of the sector +2,3%), driven by Renault +11,5% after announcing a 30% increase in net income, well above analysts' expectations.
Volkswagen rose 2%, Peugeot +2,8%. Strong performance by Fiat Chrysler, up 4,5%. Since the beginning of January, the share has risen by 30%. Cnh Industrial gained 3,2%, Pirelli + 2,3%.
MEDIASET, FININVEST SOLD 7,79%
Fininvest has sold 7,79% of Mediaset through an accelerated bookbuilding for Italian and foreign institutions. Fininvest now owns 33,4% of the television company. The amount of the operation should be around 390 million with a capital gain in the order of 270-290 million.
THE AGREEMENT IN UKRAINE GIVES BUZZI AND SARAS WINGS
The agreement for Ukraine has given wings to some companies particularly exposed in the area, such as Buzzi + 5,6%. Saras, of which the Russian oil giant Rosneft is the second shareholder with 21% of the capital, gained 5,3%. The positive notes for the refining business contribute in favor of the stock: the recent fall in crude oil prices has pushed the average margin above 4 dollars/barrel, the highest levels for at least a year. The title has gained 23% since January 2015, XNUMX. Positive reflections also for De 'Longhi +4,3% and Recordati + 4,2%.
UTILITIES STILL ON THE RISE. CAMPARI MISSES
Utilities are up, driven by the sentence of the Constitutional Court which repealed the Robin Tax. Advance Iren +3,35% ahead of Falck Renewables + 3,07% Ivy +3% and That +2,6%. The only negative signs in the main basket are those of Atlantia eCampari, the latter weighted by a downgrade of Goldman Sachs.
