Closure in clear increase for the European lists, supported by the hope of a peace plan between Russia and Ukraine and by the intervention of the Chinese government in support of the markets, reasons which are also supporting Wall Street, intoned at the start.
According to the Financial Times, Moscow and Kiev have made important progress on a draft for a 15-point peace plan, which includes a ceasefire and troop withdrawals, if Kiev declares its neutrality and accepts limits on its armed forces. For Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov peace talks with Ukraine are not easy but there is hope of a compromise, while for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky talks with Moscow are more realistic, even if more time is needed. However, speaking to the US Congress, Zelensky underlined that the Ukrainians have been experiencing 11 September for three weeks and asked for further sanctions, in case a "no fly zone" was impossible.
The good morning, on the European lists, was seen from the morning in the wake of the rebound of the Asian markets due to a new intervention by Beijing. Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He announced that the celestial empire will launch further measures to revive the country's economy and measures favorable to the capital markets. It is no coincidence that Chinese stocks listed on the American stock exchange are clearly recovering after the losses of recent days: for all, Alibaba appreciates by almost 25% at the Nyse.
Europe rallies waiting for the Fed
At the end of the day, the European markets arrive slightly below the highs reached in the session. Milan appreciates by 3,34% to 24.284 basis points and is slightly behind Amsterdam + 4,01% Paris + 3,68% Frankfurt +3,79%. More cautious Madrid +1,73% and London + 1,74%.
The purchases were hoarded by technology, auto and luxury stocks.
The propensity for risk is also supporting Wall Street, which moves briskly while waiting for the Fed to announce its monetary policy decisions (at 19 pm, Italian time). A 25 basis rate hike is expected (the first since 2018) to tackle inflation. This is less than the 50 basis points estimated by pre-war analysts in Eastern Europe.
After the press release from the Fed, Jerome Powell will speak, commenting on the forecasts that will be communicated by the central bank, on the pace of the next rate hikes, GDP trends, inflation and unemployment.
Indications are also awaited on the reduction of the balance sheet, which reached record levels during the pandemic with the massive purchase of bonds to support the economy.
Ahead of the end of this important meeting, 10-year Treasury yields rose to 2,204%, the highest since June 2019. The five-year yield rose to 2,149%, the highest since May 2019. In Europe, the Bund rate German reached 0,4%, the highest since November 2018.
Banks and luxury in Piazza Affari
Banks, luxury, technology stocks: Piazza Affari sees many blue chips with stellar rises.
Leading the list of progress is Bpm bank +8,73%. In the industry they also shine Bper +7,34%; Unicredit +6,21%; Mediobanca +6,73%; Understanding +6,97%. The latter communicated that her exposure to Russia, under evaluation, corresponds to loans to customers and banks of local subsidiaries equal to approximately 1,1 billion euro and to the rest of the group equal to approximately 4 billion euro.
At the top of the list are also industrial titles such as Interpump +7,88%, technological such as stm + 7,5% stellantis + 6,39%. Moncler, +5,7%, applauds the Chinese decisions after suffering yesterday the ban on the sale of luxury goods in Russia.
Instead, back off Leonardo +4,86%, after the crash of one of its M34 aircraft in the Lecco area. At the moment, according to the company, no hypotheses can be formulated on the causes of the accident.
Oil and utilities are down, starting with Terna -2,67%, Tenaris -1,48%, Italgas -1,44%, Eni -1,19%.
Waiting for a peace plan: spreads down, the ruble raises its head
Risk appetite favors Italian paper. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration decreased to 149 basis points (-4,87%), with a yield of the ten-year Italian benchmark of +1,89% against +0,4% of the German bond.
The hope of a peace plan also allows the ruble to catch its breath. There Russian coin, which traded at 75 on the American currency before the war in Ukraine, is traded at 100 on the greenback and 110 on the euro.
The Moscow Stock Exchange however remained closed again today, with default looming over the country for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution.
$117 million of interest on dollar bonds was due today. The country would be rated in "technical default" (albeit with a 30-day grace period) if it didn't pay the coupons in US currency, according to Fitch Ratings.
The node of the payment of the coupons would not be linked to a situation of financial stress in Moscow which has abundant reserves in dollars to meet its financial obligations - writes Radiocor - but to the introduction of sanctions which make it less clear which operations are authorized even if the US Treasury Department had clarified that the payment of interest on bonds issued before March 1 by the Russian Central Bank or by the Ministry of Finance was allowed until May 25 next.
"The possibility or impossibility of meeting our foreign currency obligations does not depend on us - said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov S in an interview with Russia Today - we have the money and we have made the payment, now the ball is in the field, first of all, of the American authorities". According to Siluanov, the Russian ministry received neither confirmation nor a rejection from the American bank in charge of managing the operation normally.
On the front euro-dollar, the single currency is up against the greenback in the 1,1 area.
The pound is recovering from its 16-week lows against the dollar hit yesterday, with investors expecting the Bank of England to hike rates by another quarter point tomorrow.
The stock markets are flying in anticipation of the peace plan: raw materials at the window
Uncertain session for raw materials which, after an upward start, slowed down. At the moment, Brent is down 0,13% and is trading close to 100 dollars (99,8) a barrel. The WTI recorded a drop of 0,82% to 97,24 dollars a barrel. Same script for gas which in Amsterdam opened at 117 to drop to 110 Mwh, with a drop of 4,13%. In London the price is 266 pence per thermal unit Mmbtu with a drop of 3% Among metals, nickel returned to trading in London, losing 5% at the start.
