Is it time to buy yet? Absolutely not, say insiders in chorus after yesterday's disastrous falls that crumbled prices, causing the Nasdaq to slip to last November's levels. The combination of war in Europe, Covid in Asia and, above all, the threat of a new sharp rise in US rates suggests the utmost prudence. Yet US index futures are up slightly this morning, a sign that the more daring believe that discount prices, after the declines, are a bargain. Or that, at least, there is room for a "dead cat rebound", ie a rebound that could take shape if tomorrow the consumer price index signals a slowdown in inflation. Not to be excluded given that some sectors (such as second-hand cars) seem to be slowing down. But don't trust me, replies a study by Bernstein: sales will continue, especially on Amazon (-33% this year) and Meta (-40%).
Even in Asia the stock exchanges are trying to limit the damage this morning. However, the equity markets of South Korea (-0,7%) and Japan (-1%) remain down. Mumbai's BSE Sensex is flat at the start of the session.
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges rose slightly, gaining 0,1%, from -1,5% at the start of the session. Last night the central bank said it would step up its support to the real economy,
All area currencies recovered, with the yuan in evidence (+0,4%). Rupee +0,3%. Philippine peso +0,3% on the day the Marcos family returned to the scene: Ferdinand Marcos Junior won the elections for the presidency of the Republic by a wide margin.
Signs of recovery this morning after the storm on western markets. In the USA, the Nasdaq future is up 1%. Yesterday the tech index closed down 4,3%. S&P500 -3,2%, on the lows of the last 13 months.
The 3,04-year Treasury Bund is moving away from its four-year high reached late last week to XNUMX% this morning.
Among the most sensational declines, Apple (-3,3%) and Microsoft (-3,7%). Tesla retreats by 9,1% and Twitter also loses ground: many are convinced that Elon Musk will revise his offer downwards.
Signs of recovery also for Bitcoin, which fell below the threshold of thirty thousand dollars last night, this morning at 31.000 dollars. In the last five sessions, the reference cryptocurrency has lost about a quarter of its value.
Oil is also down: WTI at 102,8 dollars a barrel, yesterday's session closed with a drop of 6%. There is no agreement on the EU embargo on imports from Moscow yet.
Recession alarm, the dam of European rates gives way
All down to the king dollar, trusting devaluation as medicine for markets looking for a compass. And so the euro, waiting for Christine Lagarde to pronounce tomorrow, loses around 0,25%, for a cross around 1,0524 (this morning 1,057). Thanks to the fear that the ECB, grappling with the risk of recession, has waited too long to intervene on rates. Thus the rumors about a hike in July are multiplying. Yesterday it was ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn who said that "it is reasonable that soon, in my view in July, we will start raising rates in line with our normalization of monetary policy". Meanwhile, investor morale in the 19-member bloc slipped in May to its lowest level since June 2020, down for the third straight month.
Btp under fire: spread over 200 points, then retrace
Italy, with a public debt just over 150% and a GDP slowing significantly compared to 2021, is one of the easiest targets on the money markets, despite the charisma of Mario Draghi, who meets Joe Biden today.
The rate of the 10-year BTP closed at +3,01% and that of the Bund at +1,09%, for a spread that fell in the final stages to 192 basis points (-4,08%), after exceeding the 200 points.
On Friday the Treasury will offer up to 6,75 billion in three BTPs (5, 7 and 30 years).
Piazza Affari slips below 23 thousand.
Black Monday also for the stock markets. Piazza Affari is no exception: -2,74%, below the psychological threshold of 23 points (22.832).
Achtung recession: Volkswagen's call for peace
Frankfurt leaves 2,12% on the ground The German institute Imk warns: an abrupt stop in deliveries of Russian natural gas could trigger a recession in Germany comparable to the years of the economic crisis of 2020 and 2009, if not worse.
Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess yesterday launched a heartfelt appeal for peace.
Paris is also down sharply (-2,6%), which, in the last four sessions, has lost an abundant 6%. Euroapi, the Sanofi spin-off specializing in life sciences, is among the stocks on positive ground.
Sos e commerce: Dutch post office collapses -12,85%
Amsterdam (-2,35%) and Madrid (-2,11%) are tuned to the same horror channel. London is no better (-2,34%).
Chip giant Infineon fell 6% as it lifted its full-year outlook, benefiting from global semiconductor shortages.
The share of the Dutch Post Office collapses (-12,85%) due to the growing pressure on e-commerce.
Philip Morris deals Swedish Match: 15 billion dollars
Philip Morris International is in talks to acquire rival Swedish Match in a deal that could value the European smokeless tobacco company at $15 billion or more.
Cryptocurrencies are suffering and bitcoin is moving to its lowest level since 2020, around $32.200, with a drop of more than 6,5%.
Only Leonardo shines in Piazza Affari, Atlantia changes its name
Only two Milanese blue chips are saved from today's wave of sales. Leonardo shines in particular: +1,39%, after having even touched a rise of 5%. Much more modest was the performance of Atlantia (+0,18%), which in the evening decided to correct yet another gaffe: the Benetton family announced that it will change the name of the investment vehicle that is a candidate to take control of Atlantia: no longer "Schema 43" (the same number of victims of the collapse of the Morandi bridge) but "Schema Alfa".
Capital Research cuts its stake in Unicredit, Accounts Ok for Bper
The banks are weak, in the face of the surge in the spread: Unicredit loses 2,66%. According to Consob communications, Capital Research has reduced its stake in UniCredit to 3,979% from 6,768%
Little better Understanding + 2,54%. Better Banca Bper -0,7% which announced the results of the quarter with the stock exchange closed. The first quarter closed with a net profit of 112,7 million euro, better than expected thanks to lower writedowns on receivables than expected.
Moody's lowers Generali, Saipem dives
Bad for Generali (-1,66%), although the rating agency Moody's has raised the rating on the financial solidity of the Lion to "A3" from "Baa1", with a stable outlook.
The black jersey is contested between Saipem (-6,91%) and Prysmian (-5,55%).
Salvatore Ferragamo is also heavy (-4,2%) after yet another denial of the rumors about the sale of the Florentine maison.
Esprinet launches the offer on Cellularline +16,3%
Against the trend, Cellularline, +16,29%, entered the sights of Esprinet (-2,25%) which last Friday presented a non-binding expression of interest in the company aimed at promoting a voluntary takeover bid on all the shares of Cellularline aimed at the delisting.
