The trade war is spreading. Donald Trump reacted to Beijing's countermove with uA new round of 25% tariff hikes on 1.300 Chinese products (technology, transport, medicines) for a total of 50 billion dollars. Washington aims to impose a negotiation on the treatment of intellectual property. China has already made it known that it will respond with increases of the same amount.
The markets are following the confrontation between the two giants with concern but without panic. For now, the reasoning is, the moves have the tinge of propaganda before real negotiations.
BEIJING SAVE ANBANG: A 10 BILLION HOLE
Chinese stock markets are up: Csi index +0,9% thanks to the rally in pharma stocks, favored by new tax cuts. Hong Kong falls, but the market is held back by the news of the public bailout of the insurance giant Anbang (owner, among other things, of the Waldorf Astoria in New York) placed under police headquarters after the arrest of the founder and president, Wu Xiaohui: to bring it back to minimum levels the solvency margin, the State Insurance Guarantee Fund will inject more than 60 billion yuan into the company, equal to 9,7 billion dollars.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei index is down slightly (-0,1%). The yen weakens against the dollar to 106,6. Seoul loses 0,7%, Mumbai is up 0,2%.
TRUMP'S THREATS DO NOT TAKE AMAZON DOWN
On Wall Street the trade war winds mingle with the echo ofDonald Trump offensive against Amazon, the behemoth controlled by enemy Jeff Bezos. But the e-commerce leader, despite the threats of intervention by the tax authorities on his business, achieved a 1,5% increase.
SUPER DEBUT FOR SPOTIFY
Meanwhile, to demonstrate that the recent cuts have not shaken the appreciation for the digital economy, he did yesterday a triumphant debut on the Swedish Spotify list (by mistake saluted by the Swiss flag). The music streaming group, whose CFO was one of the architects of the success of Netflix, has 159 million users a month in over 60 countries and 71 million subscribers who pay to access all the prerogatives of the app. It has paid out about ten billion dollars in royalties to artists and music labels.
TESLA STARTS AGAIN
Tesla also comes to the rescue (+6%) after the founder Elon Musk guaranteed that there will be no other capital increases and reassured about the increase in Model 3 deliveries, the mass model so far well below predictions.
Thanks to these propellants, the market quickly absorbed the losses suffered at the beginning of the week in a very volatile session: Dow Jones +1,85%, S&P 500 +1,26%, Nasdaq +1,04%.
Above all, the energy companies stood out, even if the best blue chip was Nike (+4%). Viacom decreased (-3,7%) after Cbs (+4,2%) presented a purchase offer lower than market expectations.
RECOVER OIL, CREDIT SUISSE PUSHES ENI
Brent-type oil closed up 0,7% at $68,2 a barrel and traded at $68 this morning. The American Petroleum Institute has released its forecasts on US oil inventories: reserves should have fallen by 3,3 million barrels last week.
In Piazza Affari Eni closed yesterday with a gain of 1,3%: Credit Suisse raised its target price to 15,75 euros from 15,50 euros, confirming the Neutral rating. Weak Saipem (-1,8%).
MILAN THE ONLY SQUARE WITH THE PLUS SIGN IN EUROPE
Only Milan closed the first session of the second quarter on positive ground. In addition to fears about the Chinese response to Trump's tariffs, bad news even if expected for German exports, the slowdown in EU manufacturing production weighed, down for the third consecutive month. German consumption also fell in February (-0,7%). In the afternoon, news from Wall Street and the recovery of the dollar made it possible to reduce liabilities.
The exception was Milan, the only price list in positive territory. The Ftse Mib index closed up 0,44%, at 22.510 points after having scored a low of 22.219 in the morning.
The worst place was Frankfurt (-0,78%), which also recovered from the lows (-1,25%). Madrid lose half a point. In paler red Paris (-0,25%). Outside the Eurozone, London loses 0,37%. The worst price list is Zurich (-1,38%).
VENETIAN BANKS, THE ITALIAN DEFICIT RISES BY 4,7 BILLION
In March 2018, the public sector borrowing requirement fell to €20,9 billion, down by around €2,3 billion year-on-year, while that of the first three months decreased by around €2,6 billion compared to the first quarter of 2017 , to 23,177 billion.
Eurostat revised Italy's net borrowing upwards by €4,7 billion in 2017 due to the state-backed effort to bail out Veneto Banca and Popolare Vicenza. The negative impact on the debt is 11,2 billion, a part of which is however already included in the preliminary balances released at the beginning of March. Before the Brussels verdict arrived, Istat had estimated the 2017 deficit at 1,9% of GDP from 2,5% in 2016 and the debt/GDP ratio at 131,5% from the previous 132%, the first drop since 2015.
STILL PURCHASES ON BTPs, BUT MODEST VOLUMES
Secondary market with modest volumes. The yield of the 10-year BTP remains at 1,79%, while the spread with the Bund decreased to 128.70 basis points, -1%.
The closing of the quarter and of the fiscal year for Asian operators favored purchase flows above all on Italian debt.
Over the next few days it will be interesting to verify the solidity of the BTPs in this uncertain political phase, bearing in mind that the positioning is now decidedly more balanced than at the beginning of March. On the supply side, Spain placed six- and twelve-month bonds for 4,5 billion. Madrid, in Thursday's auctions, will offer bonds up to 5,75 billion.
FCA FLIES, BUT ITALIAN SALES ARE IN A SHARP DOWN
Media, cars and luxury made possible the positive performance of the Italian Stock Exchange.
At the head of the list stands Fiat Chrysler (+7,3%), supported in the afternoon by the data on US registrations, which increased by 13,6% compared to the same month of 2017, to 216.063 units. The stock also benefited from the strengthening of the dollar. In the evening, however, the Italian data came out. Overall, the market suffered a drop of 5,75%, but for FCA the figure is worse: - 12,9% the market share drops to 27,8 from 30,1%.
RAIN OF APPLAUSE FOR MEDIASET-SKY
Great market response toagreement between Mediaset (+6,4%) and Sky which has eliminated the uncertainty about the future of Premium. The two media groups have signed an agreement for the landing of Sky on digital terrestrial and Premium on satellite. The Fininvest subsidiary also obtained from Sky Italia the option right, with no exercise obligations, to sell the stake to the satellite operator between November and December 2018. The analysts' opinions were very positive: Berenberg raised the target from 3,20 to 3,80 euro (hold to buy rating), Equita from 3,5 to 3,9 euro (hold rating), Mediobanca Securities from 4 to 4,34 euro.
Meanwhile Sky has received aoffered by Walt Disney for Sky News: the sale could make it possible for the UK Antitrust to approve Murdoch's takeover bid on the rest of the platform.
Among the side effects of the deal, the leap of Ei Towers (+4,49%). Telecom Italia down (-1,5%): after the agreement with Sky, the creation of a platform based on the Canal plus axis (Vivendi) and the Mediaset group fades completely.
MONCLER'S RACE SPEEDS UP, STOP FOR STM
Another record day for Moncler (+6,4%) with intense volumes. Goldman Sachs confirmed the buy recommendation, the target price rises to 37 from 28,4 euros.
The worst stock is Stm (negative by almost 3%), weighed down by the negative movement of the sector yesterday on Wall Street. According to Bloomberg, Apple could use its own microprocessors in Mac computers from 2020, replacing the chips now bought from Intel. "If confirmed, the news would have negative implications for the entire Apple supply chain, including STM," commented Equita Sim.
BPER RENEWS THE HISTORIC SHAREHOLDERS' AGREEMENT
Little moved bankers, except theyet another drop of Mps (-2,2%). Intesa +0,1% after the interview of CEO Carlo Messina with the Financial Times which opens up the possible entry of an international minority shareholder into the group's savings hub.
Bper -0,49%. In view of the next April 14 meeting on the budget and the renewal of the board of directors, the "historic shareholders' agreement" confirmed the agreements reached and updated the shareholdings: 68 shareholders holding 4,217% of the capital signed up to the agreement. The only shareholder with a share exceeding 1% is Giorgio Pulazza, an entrepreneur from Romagna in the real estate sector.
Banca Generali starts the second quarter with a gain of 1% after Mediobanca's promotion to outperform from Neutral.
Sale Creval (+1,8%): communications to Consob show that Robert Pitts, through the companies Steadfast Capital Management and Steadfast Advisors, has become the leading shareholder with a stake of 8,554%.
In the rest of the price list, the exploit of Technogym (+3,85%) should be highlighted: the president Nerio Alessandri reiterated in an interview the goal of increasing market shares in China and the USA.
