For the first time since 2001, international trade is growing less than world GDP. This was certified yesterday by the WTO, which revised its estimates for 2,8 downwards from 1,7 to 2016%, attributing the cause to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and the drop in imports to the USA. It is the confirmation that the world economy, supported by low interest rates, is advancing on fragile ground, in search of new balances and, above all, new energy, waiting for the USA to express its new leadership.
In the meantime moods are divided: European markets suffer, hit by the troubles of German banks, while Wall Street rises (moderately), with investors celebrating Hillary Clinton's success in the first televised confrontation with Donald Trump. But the show, which kept 83 million Americans glued to the video, has only just begun. Oil contributes to depressing the picture, in sharp decline, awaiting the flop announced by the Opec summit today in Algiers. The market map reflects this two-faced reality.
WEAK ASIA, CONSUMPTION PUSHES AMAZON AND NIKE
The Asian stock markets are weak, despite the gains on Wall Street. The Nikkei index loses ground in Tokyo (-1,5%), under pressure from the yen. The Asia-Pacific price list and the Chinese stock exchanges are also down.
The success of the Posta Saving Bank IPO on the Hong Kong list was modest: the offer (7,4 billion dollars, the most important since 2014) was absorbed with difficulty by the market despite the efforts of a fierce consortium made up of 26 banks.
Wall Street's script is different: the Dow Jones rises by 0,74% ahead of the S&P 500 index +0,64%. The Nasdaq posted a 0,92% gain. In addition to the outcome of the Clinton-Trump confrontation, the driving force behind the price lists was the data on consumption: the consumer confidence index prepared by the Conference Board soared to 104,1 points in September, the highest since August 2007 The consensus had expected a drop to 99 from 101,8 in August. The news gave wings to the stocks most linked to the desire to spend of families: Amazon leads the race (+2,12%), ahead of Nike (-1,73%) and Coca Cola (+1,28%).
CONFISCATION OF RECORDS IN WELLS FARGO. YELLEN SPEAKS TODAY
The board of Wells Fargo (+0,74%), in an attempt to buffer the effects of the scandal of rigged current accounts and credit cards, has decided to confiscate company awards, bonuses, stock options and the salary of CEO John Stumpf : a total of 41 million dollars. Janet Yellen will appear before Congress today for the customary parliamentary hearing.
THE AGREEMENT FALLS AWAY, OIL IN FALL
Oil prices lose new blows: Brent slips below 46 dollars, with a drop in the order of three percentage points, Wti is just above 44 dollars. In practice, the hope that today's Algiers summit will be able to get producers to agree on a production quota to support quotations has vanished.
Iran, which insists on increasing its production to 4,2-4,3 million barrels per day (against the current 3,6 million) has rejected the compromise offered by Arabia (available to reduce production by 1 million barrels in case Tehran agrees not to go beyond 4 million barrels). "At this point, I don't expect an agreement any time soon," said Saudi minister Khalid Al-Falih. The Iranian colleague agrees with him for once: "This is not the time to sign agreements".
US oil companies recovered in the evening: Exxon and Texaco +0,2%. European stocks remain down. In Milan, Eni closed down 0,4%, Saipem -1,7%, Tenaris -1,4%. France's Total lost 2,7%.
DRAGONS TACKLE THE BUNDESTAG. TODAY THE AUCTION BOT
The problems of the German banks combined with the negative performance of the energy sector and the political tensions in Italy contributed to the third consecutive day of decline for the European stock exchanges. In this context, expectations are growing for today's speech that Mario Draghi will give in the German Parliament, where he will be challenged by the enemies of Quantitative Easing, to whom a part of the parliamentarians attribute a large part of the responsibility for the troubles in the world of credit beyond the Rhine.
Piazza Affari closed yesterday with the FtseMib index down by 0,3% to 16.135 after falling below the 16.000 mark during the session. Paris and London fell by 0,3%. Frankfurt is doing worse (-0,5%), crippled by the problems of the banks and Volkswagen. The Italian bond market discounted the general pessimism, which rewards the Bund and core government bonds. The 1,219-year BTP rate rose to 1,194% from 10% while the spread on 141-year Bunds widened to 30 basis points, the highest since 32 June. The gap between the BTPs and the Spanish Bonos is still widening, rising to 4 points (+0,89 points). The Spanish XNUMX-year rate reached an all-time low of XNUMX%.
Today the end-of-month Treasury auctions continue with the offer of the six-monthly Treasury bonds. On the gray market, the bond discounts a yield of -0,234%, slightly higher than the -0,236% recorded in the auction at the end of August.
DEUTSCHE BANK-COMMERZBANK, TWIN DISASTER
It was a new day of passion for Germany. Starting with the big banks, now at the center of a systemic crisis. Deutsche Bank touched a new historic low of 10,18 euros in the morning and then reacted and closed at 10,55. The top management of the group confirmed that they are able to solve their problems at home without a capital increase. But the market doesn't trust it: the 5-year CDS (derivative instrument used to hedge the risk of default) has shot up by 25% in one week, +10% only yesterday.
The emergency has also infected Commerzbank, the second largest bank in the country, already saved by public intervention. The stock dropped 2,2% yesterday, expanding the year-to-date loss to 40%. The institute, according to an article in Die Handelsblat, could cut about 9 jobs in the coming years, as part of a restructuring whose costs could reach up to one billion euros. The restructuring plan will be presented on 30 September. The Bank, of which the Federal State is a 15% shareholder, has around 50 employees.
BUNDESBANK: ENOUGH DINOSAUR BANKS
Germany does not seem willing to lay out a safety net for the credit system. After the closed attitude shown by Angela Merkel, yesterday it was the turn of Andreas Dombret, the member of the board of the Bundesbank in charge of supervision. During a speech in Vienna, the banker did not rule out a slimming cure for the system, both with the downsizing of the major institutions and with the disappearance of smaller banks. The weight of banks on GDP has already dropped from 360% in 2011 to 230%, a percentage still considered too high by the Buba member. In short, enough with the dinosaur banks, now a burden rather than an advantage for the functioning of the economy.
THE US FINE MAKES VOLKSWAGEN SHAKE
The difficulties of Volkswagen (-2,5%) are of a completely different tenor, following the rumors about a new fine arriving in the United States reported by Bloomberg in which it is said that the Department of Justice is evaluating the financial strength of the group before to decide the penalty. After the sentence imposed on Deutsche Bank, the first cause of the bank's collapse, Germany is once again in the dock in the US courts. The Wolfsburg group replied that the amount allocated to deal with the scandal of the souped-up diesel engines already fully covers all disbursements of any kind. “Volkswagen's financial structure is quite robust. Today, the total of the extraordinary items related to the diesel engine affair amounts to 17,8 billion euros and all the charges known so far are covered”, says a note from the company.
MPS, CONVERSION BETS. BPM, GUERRILLA OF PENSIONERS
The good news for Piazza Affari comes, for once, from Siena. Monte Paschi (+1,6%) confirms the progress made on the eve: in addition to the rumors about possible investors arriving from Qatar, the voluntary conversion of the bonds announced by the Board of Directors holds ground. The offer could be extended to everyone, even to the approximately 40 private subscribers and could take place below the nominal value but with a premium on the current share prices.
The pressure on the other securities in the sector remains strong: Mediobanca -2,53%, Banco Popolare -1,99%, Unicredit -1,84%. Bpm also decreased (-1,31%): the Lisippo association, one of the points of reference for the retired members of the Piazza Meda institute, reiterated its invitation to vote no to the merger at the meeting on 15 October.
Among the insurance companies, Unipol closed down by 2%: the company could participate in the capital increase of Monte Paschi. The big names are still down: Generali -0,4%, Allianz -2,1% and Axa -1,9% suffer. In assets under management, Azimut is among the worst blue chip with a drop of 3,1%: Goldman Sachs lowered the target price, while confirming the Buy recommendation
FCA BRAKING, LANDI, RENZO AND DANIELI COLLAPSE
A restless day for Fiat Chrysler, -1,4% after a difficult morning for a Bloomberg article on the higher costs imposed by the rules of the US anti-pollution body. In reality, the expenditure (5,1 billion) is already known and will be spread over the next nine years.
Landi Renzi's thud: -5% to 0,42 euros. Management has cut estimates for the full year. Now the group indicates a turnover between 180 and 190 million and an Ebitda normalized for any non-recurring charges related to cost reduction actions between 4 and 6 million. "The recent drop in the price of oil has had a significant impact on the alternative fuel market, particularly in the Americas", explains a note which also speaks of a slowdown in the registrations of new LPG/CNG cars in Europe. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has lost 45%.
Danieli is also down sharply: - 5% to 17,46 euros. The company that operates in the steel sector closed the 2015/2016 financial year (at the end of June) with a net profit down by 46% to 88 million euros from 161,7 million a year ago. Revenue fell 9% to $2,508 billion from $2,765 billion. The company expects global steel production to decline by about 2016-1% in 1,5.
