Opening week in the spotlight after Friday's rumors on bond purchase plan for 1.000 billion euros over the course of a year by the ECB (with a positive impact on inflation calculable at +0,2-0,8 percentage points). So watch out for tomorrow when the hawk will speak Jens Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank and member of the board of the ECB, who, always hostile to European Qe, has however opened up to this possibility in recent days. The speech by is also on the agenda in the afternoon Bullard (Fed) on monetary policy. Today, however, the publication of the ECB's annual report is expected, as well as various interventions by members of the European Central Bank.
On the strictly Italian front, we look at the presentation of the Def, Economics and Finance document, scheduled for tomorrow by the Renzi executive, who will lift the veil on the spending review. Government sources said there will be no deficit overrun. In Europe, attention is growing on the Maastricht parameters and the famous constraint of the deficit/GDP ratio below 3%.
France was slammed by European Commissioner Olli Rehn, who said he was against giving Paris or other member states more flexibility on this parameter. France has been exceeding the parameter for some time and last spring it had obtained a two-year extension with Spain and the Netherlands. On the contrary, Italy is one of the virtuous European countries.
Thursday is scheduled a Bot auction at 3 and 12 months, followed on Friday by the placement of Btp.
However, the opening of the session is a nervous wait. Tokyo proceeds downwards with the rise of the yen against the dollar. The price lists are discounted Friday's data on the US labor market: the jobs created were lower than expected even if the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6,7%. Furthermore, if on the one hand the markets expect the Fed to continue stably with the tapering, on the other hand expectations for a new stimulus from the Bank of Japan: today opens the two days of the board that could adopt new measures to support the economy. The holidays in China, where the markets are closed, and the past week on the markets, which recorded better than expected increases, also made the price lists volatile.
Meanwhile the World Bank He said developing economies in East Asia will grow less than expected as more moderate Chinese expansion and political tensions weigh on Thailand. According to World Bank forecasts, China will grow by 7,6% in 2014 from the 7,7 estimated in October while Thailand by 3%, 1,5 percentage points less than six months ago. Overall, the East Asia region is expected to expand by 7,1% in 2014 versus 7,2% in the October estimate. In the middle of the week, the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank begin in Washington, attended by Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and the governor of the Bank of Italy, Ignazio Visco.
At the macroeconomic level, German industrial production for February, Spanish industrial production and the same data for the Eurozone are expected in the morning. On the price lists watch out for cement sector after the big merger operationHolcim-Lafarge which will lead to the birth of the first global giant in the sector. A marriage with a 55 billion dollar market value and more than 40 billion in turnover. We now look at what the antitrust authorities will say. In New York the wait for is reduced the listing of Dropbox and Square after the two companies obtained new credit lines, a move that suggests that they are not close to the IPO.
