While the second quarter of 2026 saw an intensification of military escalation in the Middle East which resulted in a surge in oil and natural gas prices, Polish economic performance has improved thanks to the resumption of construction and industrial activity.
According to ING estimate, On an annual basis, GDP growth accelerated to 3,8% from 3,5%, as increased investment activity more than offset a further slowdown in private consumption. Seasonally adjusted data suggest the economy has gained momentum, with growth accelerating to 0,9% QoQ from 0,6% QoQ in the first quarter. At the same time, investment activity has gained momentum with the accelerated absorption of EU funds, including those from the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
In July Consumer price growth accelerated to 3,0% year-on-year Compared to 2,5% in June, the increase was almost entirely due to a renewed increase in fuel prices following the reinstatement of the standard VAT rate at 23% from a temporary 8% and the removal of the fuel price cap in early July. Combined with rising oil prices following the collapse of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran, this pushed retail gasoline and diesel prices up 15,8%. As a result, annual fuel price inflation accelerated to 7,0% from 1,3% in June, contributing approximately 0,5-0,6 percentage points to overall inflation.
At the same time, price pressures remain contained in the other items in the basketHousing energy inflation eased slightly, reflecting lower liquid fuel prices compared to June, while food prices, particularly meat, livestock products, fruits, and vegetables, continued to decline. Furthermore, competition among major retail chains (which rose 6,2% in June after 3,0% growth in May) continues to exert downward pressure on consumer prices.
Compared to the first quarter of 2026, the second saw an acceleration of industrial growth, a rebound in construction activity after sharp declines at the start of the year, and slower growth in retail sales.
Inflation remains within the Central Bank's target range (2,5% ±1 percentage point), which should lead the NBP to keep interest rates unchanged at the current level of 3,75%. Analysts do not expect interest rate cuts until mid-2027, when inflation could fall below target.
